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icon for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

icon for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

NEW
Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

5.25%

$0 Vol.

17%

5.10%

$0 Vol.

23%

5.00%

$0 Vol.

32%

4.95%

$0 Vol.

41%

4.90%

$0 Vol.

43%

4.85%

$0 Vol.

52%

4.80%

$0 Vol.

56%

4.75%

$0 Vol.

65%

4.70%

$0 Vol.

71%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict have elevated oil prices and inflation expectations, pushing the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.63% as of September 10, 2026—up over 100 basis points from a year earlier. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, including emphasis on persistent core inflation near 3.7% PCE, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential rate hikes rather than cuts through 2026, lifting real yields and the term premium. Elevated fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply further support a higher neutral policy rate. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases, FOMC decisions, and labor data for signs of whether sticky price pressures or cooling shelter inflation will dominate the path to 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict have elevated oil prices and inflation expectations, pushing the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.63% as of September 10, 2026—up over 100 basis points from a year earlier. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, including emphasis on persistent core inflation near 3.7% PCE, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential rate hikes rather than cuts through 2026, lifting real yields and the term premium. Elevated fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply further support a higher neutral policy rate. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases, FOMC decisions, and labor data for signs of whether sticky price pressures or cooling shelter inflation will dominate the path to 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.70%" at 71%, followed by "4.75%" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" is "4.70%" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.75%" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.