Recent robust U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 against expectations of 56,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. This resilience, alongside persistent inflation risks from tariffs and supply disruptions, has prompted revisions from firms like UBS and BofA to forecast 50–75 basis points of tightening by year-end, aligning with the current 73.5% market-implied probability for a hike. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50%–3.75%, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting represents a key near-term catalyst, with futures pricing elevated odds of a 25 basis point move amid evolving dot plot projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated74% chance
$8,780,784 Vol.
$8,780,784 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
74% chance
$8,780,784 Vol.
$8,780,784 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent robust U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 against expectations of 56,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. This resilience, alongside persistent inflation risks from tariffs and supply disruptions, has prompted revisions from firms like UBS and BofA to forecast 50–75 basis points of tightening by year-end, aligning with the current 73.5% market-implied probability for a hike. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50%–3.75%, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting represents a key near-term catalyst, with futures pricing elevated odds of a 25 basis point move amid evolving dot plot projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,780,784End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent robust U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 against expectations of 56,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. This resilience, alongside persistent inflation risks from tariffs and supply disruptions, has prompted revisions from firms like UBS and BofA to forecast 50–75 basis points of tightening by year-end, aligning with the current 73.5% market-implied probability for a hike. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50%–3.75%, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting represents a key near-term catalyst, with futures pricing elevated odds of a 25 basis point move amid evolving dot plot projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,780,784End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent robust U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 against expectations of 56,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. This resilience, alongside persistent inflation risks from tariffs and supply disruptions, has prompted revisions from firms like UBS and BofA to forecast 50–75 basis points of tightening by year-end, aligning with the current 73.5% market-implied probability for a hike. The federal funds rate remains anchored at 3.50%–3.75%, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting represents a key near-term catalyst, with futures pricing elevated odds of a 25 basis point move amid evolving dot plot projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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