Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election show Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points of each other in the 17–21% range, producing a narrow contest for second through fourth place that directly shapes the market on third. Late surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and Civey record minor shifts in this middle group, with Linke and Grüne edging ahead in some samples while AfD and CDU hold steady or slip slightly. The SPD's recent legal scrutiny of its lead candidate has further compressed its support, reducing the chance it finishes higher, while smaller parties remain well below the threshold. With the vote only days away and turnout dynamics uncertain, traders price the four leading contenders as the most plausible finishers in third, reflecting the narrow margins and absence of decisive late momentum for any single party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAfD 28%
Grüne 22%
CDU 22%
Linke 22%
$33,796 Vol.
$33,796 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
28%
Grüne
22%
CDU
22%
Linke
22%
SPD
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 28%
Grüne 22%
CDU 22%
Linke 22%
$33,796 Vol.
$33,796 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$7,014 Vol.
28%
Grüne
$4,652 Vol.
22%
CDU
$10,747 Vol.
22%
Linke
$6,367 Vol.
22%
SPD
$2,445 Vol.
1%
FDP
$1,069 Vol.
<1%
FW
$713 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$789 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election show Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points of each other in the 17–21% range, producing a narrow contest for second through fourth place that directly shapes the market on third. Late surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and Civey record minor shifts in this middle group, with Linke and Grüne edging ahead in some samples while AfD and CDU hold steady or slip slightly. The SPD's recent legal scrutiny of its lead candidate has further compressed its support, reducing the chance it finishes higher, while smaller parties remain well below the threshold. With the vote only days away and turnout dynamics uncertain, traders price the four leading contenders as the most plausible finishers in third, reflecting the narrow margins and absence of decisive late momentum for any single party.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Volume
$33,796End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election show Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points of each other in the 17–21% range, producing a narrow contest for second through fourth place that directly shapes the market on third. Late surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and Civey record minor shifts in this middle group, with Linke and Grüne edging ahead in some samples while AfD and CDU hold steady or slip slightly. The SPD's recent legal scrutiny of its lead candidate has further compressed its support, reducing the chance it finishes higher, while smaller parties remain well below the threshold. With the vote only days away and turnout dynamics uncertain, traders price the four leading contenders as the most plausible finishers in third, reflecting the narrow margins and absence of decisive late momentum for any single party.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$33,796End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election show Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points of each other in the 17–21% range, producing a narrow contest for second through fourth place that directly shapes the market on third. Late surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and Civey record minor shifts in this middle group, with Linke and Grüne edging ahead in some samples while AfD and CDU hold steady or slip slightly. The SPD's recent legal scrutiny of its lead candidate has further compressed its support, reducing the chance it finishes higher, while smaller parties remain well below the threshold. With the vote only days away and turnout dynamics uncertain, traders price the four leading contenders as the most plausible finishers in third, reflecting the narrow margins and absence of decisive late momentum for any single party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions