**Recent polling averages place the AfD at approximately 35–37% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, supporting trader expectations that the party will finish above 35% in the September 20, 2026, Landtag election.** Multiple surveys from late August 2026 show the AfD leading as the strongest party: Infratest dimap recorded 35% (SPD 32%), Forsa 37% (SPD 28%), and INSA 36% (SPD 29%). Earlier 2026 readings from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA similarly clustered between 34% and 37%, roughly doubling the AfD’s 16.7% result from the 2021 election. This sustained position reflects voter shifts away from the incumbent SPD–Left coalition, which trails in every recent survey and would lack a majority under current numbers. The AfD’s consistent first-place standing across institutes, combined with limited movement in the final weeks before the vote, underpins the market’s implied probability for the “Over” outcome. No major late-campaign developments have altered the polling trajectory in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
78% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
78% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling averages place the AfD at approximately 35–37% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, supporting trader expectations that the party will finish above 35% in the September 20, 2026, Landtag election.** Multiple surveys from late August 2026 show the AfD leading as the strongest party: Infratest dimap recorded 35% (SPD 32%), Forsa 37% (SPD 28%), and INSA 36% (SPD 29%). Earlier 2026 readings from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA similarly clustered between 34% and 37%, roughly doubling the AfD’s 16.7% result from the 2021 election.
This sustained position reflects voter shifts away from the incumbent SPD–Left coalition, which trails in every recent survey and would lack a majority under current numbers. The AfD’s consistent first-place standing across institutes, combined with limited movement in the final weeks before the vote, underpins the market’s implied probability for the “Over” outcome. No major late-campaign developments have altered the polling trajectory in the past month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,853End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling averages place the AfD at approximately 35–37% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, supporting trader expectations that the party will finish above 35% in the September 20, 2026, Landtag election.** Multiple surveys from late August 2026 show the AfD leading as the strongest party: Infratest dimap recorded 35% (SPD 32%), Forsa 37% (SPD 28%), and INSA 36% (SPD 29%). Earlier 2026 readings from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA similarly clustered between 34% and 37%, roughly doubling the AfD’s 16.7% result from the 2021 election.
This sustained position reflects voter shifts away from the incumbent SPD–Left coalition, which trails in every recent survey and would lack a majority under current numbers. The AfD’s consistent first-place standing across institutes, combined with limited movement in the final weeks before the vote, underpins the market’s implied probability for the “Over” outcome. No major late-campaign developments have altered the polling trajectory in the past month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 35% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$1,853End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages place the AfD at approximately 35–37% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, supporting trader expectations that the party will finish above 35% in the September 20, 2026, Landtag election.** Multiple surveys from late August 2026 show the AfD leading as the strongest party: Infratest dimap recorded 35% (SPD 32%), Forsa 37% (SPD 28%), and INSA 36% (SPD 29%). Earlier 2026 readings from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA similarly clustered between 34% and 37%, roughly doubling the AfD’s 16.7% result from the 2021 election. This sustained position reflects voter shifts away from the incumbent SPD–Left coalition, which trails in every recent survey and would lack a majority under current numbers. The AfD’s consistent first-place standing across institutes, combined with limited movement in the final weeks before the vote, underpins the market’s implied probability for the “Over” outcome. No major late-campaign developments have altered the polling trajectory in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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