**Recent polling shows the SPD gaining ground in the final stretch before the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, supporting the strong trader consensus for an outcome above 28%.** Incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s party has improved from mid-20s levels earlier in 2026 to 28–32% in the latest surveys. Infratest dimap’s late-August poll placed the SPD at 32% (up 3 points), while Forsa and INSA readings from the same period showed 28% and 29%. These figures reflect modest but consistent late-campaign momentum for the SPD–Left governing coalition amid stable AfD support at 35–37%. With the election only days away, the clustering of recent state-level surveys around or above the 28% mark has produced the elevated implied probability for the “over” side. Smaller parties remain near the 5% threshold, but their performance is unlikely to alter the SPD’s projected share substantially in the short resolution window. No major disruptive events have reversed the SPD’s recent polling trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
92% chance
$14,459 Vol.
$14,459 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Over
92% chance
$14,459 Vol.
$14,459 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling shows the SPD gaining ground in the final stretch before the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, supporting the strong trader consensus for an outcome above 28%.**
Incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s party has improved from mid-20s levels earlier in 2026 to 28–32% in the latest surveys. Infratest dimap’s late-August poll placed the SPD at 32% (up 3 points), while Forsa and INSA readings from the same period showed 28% and 29%. These figures reflect modest but consistent late-campaign momentum for the SPD–Left governing coalition amid stable AfD support at 35–37%.
With the election only days away, the clustering of recent state-level surveys around or above the 28% mark has produced the elevated implied probability for the “over” side. Smaller parties remain near the 5% threshold, but their performance is unlikely to alter the SPD’s projected share substantially in the short resolution window. No major disruptive events have reversed the SPD’s recent polling trajectory.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$14,459End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling shows the SPD gaining ground in the final stretch before the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, supporting the strong trader consensus for an outcome above 28%.**
Incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s party has improved from mid-20s levels earlier in 2026 to 28–32% in the latest surveys. Infratest dimap’s late-August poll placed the SPD at 32% (up 3 points), while Forsa and INSA readings from the same period showed 28% and 29%. These figures reflect modest but consistent late-campaign momentum for the SPD–Left governing coalition amid stable AfD support at 35–37%.
With the election only days away, the clustering of recent state-level surveys around or above the 28% mark has produced the elevated implied probability for the “over” side. Smaller parties remain near the 5% threshold, but their performance is unlikely to alter the SPD’s projected share substantially in the short resolution window. No major disruptive events have reversed the SPD’s recent polling trajectory.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$14,459End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling shows the SPD gaining ground in the final stretch before the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, supporting the strong trader consensus for an outcome above 28%.** Incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s party has improved from mid-20s levels earlier in 2026 to 28–32% in the latest surveys. Infratest dimap’s late-August poll placed the SPD at 32% (up 3 points), while Forsa and INSA readings from the same period showed 28% and 29%. These figures reflect modest but consistent late-campaign momentum for the SPD–Left governing coalition amid stable AfD support at 35–37%. With the election only days away, the clustering of recent state-level surveys around or above the 28% mark has produced the elevated implied probability for the “over” side. Smaller parties remain near the 5% threshold, but their performance is unlikely to alter the SPD’s projected share substantially in the short resolution window. No major disruptive events have reversed the SPD’s recent polling trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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