Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election show a tight contest among CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne in the 15-22% range, with SPD trailing near 12-15%, creating uncertainty over exact finishing order. Grüne's position as the implied favorite for fourth place aligns with consistent mid-tier polling results and limited recent momentum shifts, while AfD's higher odds reflect its upward trend in eastern state votes and Berlin-specific surveys. SPD and CDU face pressure from coalition fatigue and candidate scrutiny, including recent searches tied to SPD's lead candidate. Linke benefits from gains but remains vulnerable to late swings among undecided voters. With ten days left, final turnout and small vote shifts among the clustered parties could reorder the middle rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGrüne 47%
AfD 22%
CDU 16.8%
SPD 14%
$12,514 Vol.
$12,514 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
47%
AfD
22%
CDU
17%
SPD
14%
Linke
6%
BSW
1%
FW
1%
FDP
1%
Grüne 47%
AfD 22%
CDU 16.8%
SPD 14%
$12,514 Vol.
$12,514 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
$6,535 Vol.
47%
AfD
$4,140 Vol.
22%
CDU
$182 Vol.
17%
SPD
$344 Vol.
14%
Linke
$738 Vol.
6%
BSW
$212 Vol.
1%
FW
$209 Vol.
1%
FDP
$154 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election show a tight contest among CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne in the 15-22% range, with SPD trailing near 12-15%, creating uncertainty over exact finishing order. Grüne's position as the implied favorite for fourth place aligns with consistent mid-tier polling results and limited recent momentum shifts, while AfD's higher odds reflect its upward trend in eastern state votes and Berlin-specific surveys. SPD and CDU face pressure from coalition fatigue and candidate scrutiny, including recent searches tied to SPD's lead candidate. Linke benefits from gains but remains vulnerable to late swings among undecided voters. With ten days left, final turnout and small vote shifts among the clustered parties could reorder the middle rankings.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$12,514End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election show a tight contest among CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne in the 15-22% range, with SPD trailing near 12-15%, creating uncertainty over exact finishing order. Grüne's position as the implied favorite for fourth place aligns with consistent mid-tier polling results and limited recent momentum shifts, while AfD's higher odds reflect its upward trend in eastern state votes and Berlin-specific surveys. SPD and CDU face pressure from coalition fatigue and candidate scrutiny, including recent searches tied to SPD's lead candidate. Linke benefits from gains but remains vulnerable to late swings among undecided voters. With ten days left, final turnout and small vote shifts among the clustered parties could reorder the middle rankings.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$12,514End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 state election show a tight contest among CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne in the 15-22% range, with SPD trailing near 12-15%, creating uncertainty over exact finishing order. Grüne's position as the implied favorite for fourth place aligns with consistent mid-tier polling results and limited recent momentum shifts, while AfD's higher odds reflect its upward trend in eastern state votes and Berlin-specific surveys. SPD and CDU face pressure from coalition fatigue and candidate scrutiny, including recent searches tied to SPD's lead candidate. Linke benefits from gains but remains vulnerable to late swings among undecided voters. With ten days left, final turnout and small vote shifts among the clustered parties could reorder the middle rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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