Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the AfD in a narrow band of 17-19 percent, aligning with trader consensus on the 17-20 percent outcome as the most probable range. The party has nearly doubled its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat election amid broader national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and federal government performance. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA through early September show the AfD holding steady behind the CDU, Linke, and Greens, with no single party dominating a fragmented field. The AfD's recent strong results in eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt have generated some momentum, yet Berlin's urban demographics and the other parties' consistent refusal to cooperate limit upside scenarios. These dynamics explain why probabilities for shares above 20 percent or below 17 percent remain secondary in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17-20% 47%
20%+ 32%
14-17% 20%
<14% 3.6%
$19,322 Vol.
$19,322 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<14%
4%
14-17%
20%
17-20%
47%
20%+
32%
17-20% 47%
20%+ 32%
14-17% 20%
<14% 3.6%
$19,322 Vol.
$19,322 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<14%
$3,083 Vol.
4%
14-17%
$4,169 Vol.
20%
17-20%
$4,258 Vol.
47%
20%+
$7,813 Vol.
32%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the AfD in a narrow band of 17-19 percent, aligning with trader consensus on the 17-20 percent outcome as the most probable range. The party has nearly doubled its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat election amid broader national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and federal government performance. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA through early September show the AfD holding steady behind the CDU, Linke, and Greens, with no single party dominating a fragmented field. The AfD's recent strong results in eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt have generated some momentum, yet Berlin's urban demographics and the other parties' consistent refusal to cooperate limit upside scenarios. These dynamics explain why probabilities for shares above 20 percent or below 17 percent remain secondary in current market pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$19,322End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the AfD in a narrow band of 17-19 percent, aligning with trader consensus on the 17-20 percent outcome as the most probable range. The party has nearly doubled its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat election amid broader national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and federal government performance. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA through early September show the AfD holding steady behind the CDU, Linke, and Greens, with no single party dominating a fragmented field. The AfD's recent strong results in eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt have generated some momentum, yet Berlin's urban demographics and the other parties' consistent refusal to cooperate limit upside scenarios. These dynamics explain why probabilities for shares above 20 percent or below 17 percent remain secondary in current market pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$19,322End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the AfD in a narrow band of 17-19 percent, aligning with trader consensus on the 17-20 percent outcome as the most probable range. The party has nearly doubled its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat election amid broader national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and federal government performance. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA through early September show the AfD holding steady behind the CDU, Linke, and Greens, with no single party dominating a fragmented field. The AfD's recent strong results in eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt have generated some momentum, yet Berlin's urban demographics and the other parties' consistent refusal to cooperate limit upside scenarios. These dynamics explain why probabilities for shares above 20 percent or below 17 percent remain secondary in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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