Recent polls conducted in late August 2026 place the CDU at 8–10% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with Infratest dimap reporting 8% and Forsa and INSA at 10%. This reflects a steady decline from earlier 2026 figures around 12–13%, as the party has been squeezed between the leading AfD (35–37%) and recovering SPD (28–32%). The CDU’s position near or below the 10% threshold stems from broader polarization favoring the AfD and SPD, limited visibility for its candidate Daniel Peters, and exclusion from coalition speculation due to its stance against cooperation with the Left. With the September 20 election approaching, these consistent survey trends underpin trader consensus on an under-10% outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Over
18% chance
$12,613 Vol.
$12,613 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Over
18% chance
$12,613 Vol.
$12,613 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls conducted in late August 2026 place the CDU at 8–10% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with Infratest dimap reporting 8% and Forsa and INSA at 10%. This reflects a steady decline from earlier 2026 figures around 12–13%, as the party has been squeezed between the leading AfD (35–37%) and recovering SPD (28–32%). The CDU’s position near or below the 10% threshold stems from broader polarization favoring the AfD and SPD, limited visibility for its candidate Daniel Peters, and exclusion from coalition speculation due to its stance against cooperation with the Left. With the September 20 election approaching, these consistent survey trends underpin trader consensus on an under-10% outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$12,613End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls conducted in late August 2026 place the CDU at 8–10% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with Infratest dimap reporting 8% and Forsa and INSA at 10%. This reflects a steady decline from earlier 2026 figures around 12–13%, as the party has been squeezed between the leading AfD (35–37%) and recovering SPD (28–32%). The CDU’s position near or below the 10% threshold stems from broader polarization favoring the AfD and SPD, limited visibility for its candidate Daniel Peters, and exclusion from coalition speculation due to its stance against cooperation with the Left. With the September 20 election approaching, these consistent survey trends underpin trader consensus on an under-10% outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$12,613End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls conducted in late August 2026 place the CDU at 8–10% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with Infratest dimap reporting 8% and Forsa and INSA at 10%. This reflects a steady decline from earlier 2026 figures around 12–13%, as the party has been squeezed between the leading AfD (35–37%) and recovering SPD (28–32%). The CDU’s position near or below the 10% threshold stems from broader polarization favoring the AfD and SPD, limited visibility for its candidate Daniel Peters, and exclusion from coalition speculation due to its stance against cooperation with the Left. With the September 20 election approaching, these consistent survey trends underpin trader consensus on an under-10% outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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