Recent exit polls and early projections for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD at roughly 13.5–16 percent, below pre-election survey averages near 18 percent yet well above its 9.1 percent result from 2023. This range translates into seat totals clustered around the market’s leading 26–31 bracket, with uncertainty arising from final turnout, district-level variation, and the precise overhang-seat mechanics of Berlin’s personalized proportional system. The party’s modest gains reflect national momentum after strong eastern showings, yet remain capped by the capital’s left-leaning electorate and the cross-party firewall that excludes AfD from coalitions. Late-count adjustments in eastern districts or higher-than-expected overall participation could still shift the final tally by a few seats, keeping the 26–28 and 29–31 outcomes tightly contested until official results are certified.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated26-28 47%
29-31 37%
23-25 17.1%
32-34 15%
$82,832 Vol.
$82,832 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
11%
20-22
6%
23-25
17%
26-28
40%
29-31
37%
32-34
15%
35+
7%
26-28 47%
29-31 37%
23-25 17.1%
32-34 15%
$82,832 Vol.
$82,832 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$3,430 Vol.
11%
20-22
$7,499 Vol.
6%
23-25
$4,142 Vol.
17%
26-28
$14,857 Vol.
40%
29-31
$5,920 Vol.
37%
32-34
$13,566 Vol.
15%
35+
$36,582 Vol.
7%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent exit polls and early projections for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD at roughly 13.5–16 percent, below pre-election survey averages near 18 percent yet well above its 9.1 percent result from 2023. This range translates into seat totals clustered around the market’s leading 26–31 bracket, with uncertainty arising from final turnout, district-level variation, and the precise overhang-seat mechanics of Berlin’s personalized proportional system. The party’s modest gains reflect national momentum after strong eastern showings, yet remain capped by the capital’s left-leaning electorate and the cross-party firewall that excludes AfD from coalitions. Late-count adjustments in eastern districts or higher-than-expected overall participation could still shift the final tally by a few seats, keeping the 26–28 and 29–31 outcomes tightly contested until official results are certified.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$82,832End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent exit polls and early projections for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD at roughly 13.5–16 percent, below pre-election survey averages near 18 percent yet well above its 9.1 percent result from 2023. This range translates into seat totals clustered around the market’s leading 26–31 bracket, with uncertainty arising from final turnout, district-level variation, and the precise overhang-seat mechanics of Berlin’s personalized proportional system. The party’s modest gains reflect national momentum after strong eastern showings, yet remain capped by the capital’s left-leaning electorate and the cross-party firewall that excludes AfD from coalitions. Late-count adjustments in eastern districts or higher-than-expected overall participation could still shift the final tally by a few seats, keeping the 26–28 and 29–31 outcomes tightly contested until official results are certified.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$82,832End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent exit polls and early projections for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD at roughly 13.5–16 percent, below pre-election survey averages near 18 percent yet well above its 9.1 percent result from 2023. This range translates into seat totals clustered around the market’s leading 26–31 bracket, with uncertainty arising from final turnout, district-level variation, and the precise overhang-seat mechanics of Berlin’s personalized proportional system. The party’s modest gains reflect national momentum after strong eastern showings, yet remain capped by the capital’s left-leaning electorate and the cross-party firewall that excludes AfD from coalitions. Late-count adjustments in eastern districts or higher-than-expected overall participation could still shift the final tally by a few seats, keeping the 26–28 and 29–31 outcomes tightly contested until official results are certified.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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