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Politics·Germany

Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

icon for Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
Politics·Germany

Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

Manuela Schwesig 94%

Enrico Schult 2.8%

Daniel Peters 2.7%

Leif-Erik Holm 2.5%

Polymarket

$26,298 Vol.

Manuela Schwesig 94%

Enrico Schult 2.8%

Daniel Peters 2.7%

Leif-Erik Holm 2.5%

Polymarket

$26,298 Vol.

icon for Manuela Schwesig

Manuela Schwesig

$23,021 Vol.

94%

icon for Enrico Schult

Enrico Schult

$486 Vol.

3%

icon for Daniel Peters

Daniel Peters

$460 Vol.

3%

icon for Leif-Erik Holm

Leif-Erik Holm

$1,092 Vol.

3%

icon for Jakob Schirmer

Jakob Schirmer

$460 Vol.

1%

icon for Simone Oldenburg

Simone Oldenburg

$387 Vol.

1%

icon for Claudia Müller

Claudia Müller

$393 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Manuela Schwesig holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in this market as the incumbent SPD Minister-President seeking re-election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election. Her position stems from strong personal popularity—recent surveys show roughly 60% of voters preferring her to continue—combined with her established record leading a stable SPD-Left coalition since 2017 and a recent poll surge that narrowed the AfD’s narrow lead to three points. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers facing the AfD, including limited coalition options with other parties, alongside Schwesig’s consistent cross-party appeal and incumbency advantage. Late developments such as the aggressive TV duel with AfD frontrunner Leif-Erik Holm underscore the contest’s intensity, yet her commanding odds could shift only if an unexpected coalition forms or a major personal or party setback emerges before voting concludes.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,298
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Manuela Schwesig holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in this market as the incumbent SPD Minister-President seeking re-election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election. Her position stems from strong personal popularity—recent surveys show roughly 60% of voters preferring her to continue—combined with her established record leading a stable SPD-Left coalition since 2017 and a recent poll surge that narrowed the AfD’s narrow lead to three points. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers facing the AfD, including limited coalition options with other parties, alongside Schwesig’s consistent cross-party appeal and incumbency advantage. Late developments such as the aggressive TV duel with AfD frontrunner Leif-Erik Holm underscore the contest’s intensity, yet her commanding odds could shift only if an unexpected coalition forms or a major personal or party setback emerges before voting concludes.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,298
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Manuela Schwesig" at 94%, followed by "Enrico Schult" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?" has generated $26.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?" is "Manuela Schwesig" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Enrico Schult" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.