**Strong labor market resilience and persistent inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are anchoring trader consensus around an overheating outcome for year-end 2026.** As of August 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1% with nonfarm payrolls adding 162,000 jobs, while headline CPI registers 3.4% year-over-year and core measures show limited cooling. The FOMC’s September 2026 projections reinforce this view, with median forecasts of 4.1% unemployment and 3.7% PCE inflation for 2026 alongside a federal funds rate at 4.1%, reflecting expectations of one additional rate hike and slower disinflation. Recent supply shocks, including energy price effects, and solid GDP growth around 1.5–2.3% have sustained these conditions, keeping probabilities for slack or stagflation negligible. Key near-term catalysts include the October employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings that could shift rate-path expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOverheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 76%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$88,537 Vol.
$88,537 Vol.
30 ene 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
76%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
<1%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 76%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$88,537 Vol.
$88,537 Vol.
30 ene 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$29,992 Vol.
76%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$41,074 Vol.
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$4,609 Vol.
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$12,863 Vol.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Strong labor market resilience and persistent inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are anchoring trader consensus around an overheating outcome for year-end 2026.** As of August 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1% with nonfarm payrolls adding 162,000 jobs, while headline CPI registers 3.4% year-over-year and core measures show limited cooling. The FOMC’s September 2026 projections reinforce this view, with median forecasts of 4.1% unemployment and 3.7% PCE inflation for 2026 alongside a federal funds rate at 4.1%, reflecting expectations of one additional rate hike and slower disinflation. Recent supply shocks, including energy price effects, and solid GDP growth around 1.5–2.3% have sustained these conditions, keeping probabilities for slack or stagflation negligible. Key near-term catalysts include the October employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings that could shift rate-path expectations.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Mercado abierto: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$88,537Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Strong labor market resilience and persistent inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are anchoring trader consensus around an overheating outcome for year-end 2026.** As of August 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1% with nonfarm payrolls adding 162,000 jobs, while headline CPI registers 3.4% year-over-year and core measures show limited cooling. The FOMC’s September 2026 projections reinforce this view, with median forecasts of 4.1% unemployment and 3.7% PCE inflation for 2026 alongside a federal funds rate at 4.1%, reflecting expectations of one additional rate hike and slower disinflation. Recent supply shocks, including energy price effects, and solid GDP growth around 1.5–2.3% have sustained these conditions, keeping probabilities for slack or stagflation negligible. Key near-term catalysts include the October employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings that could shift rate-path expectations.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Volumen
$88,537Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong labor market resilience and persistent inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are anchoring trader consensus around an overheating outcome for year-end 2026.** As of August 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1% with nonfarm payrolls adding 162,000 jobs, while headline CPI registers 3.4% year-over-year and core measures show limited cooling. The FOMC’s September 2026 projections reinforce this view, with median forecasts of 4.1% unemployment and 3.7% PCE inflation for 2026 alongside a federal funds rate at 4.1%, reflecting expectations of one additional rate hike and slower disinflation. Recent supply shocks, including energy price effects, and solid GDP growth around 1.5–2.3% have sustained these conditions, keeping probabilities for slack or stagflation negligible. Key near-term catalysts include the October employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings that could shift rate-path expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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