Recent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausa–pausa–pausa 30%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 15%
Subida–subida–pausa 13%
Pausa–Subida–Subida 10.6%
$15,084 Vol.
$15,084 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
11%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
15%
Subida–Subida–Subida
6%
Subida–subida–pausa
13%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
7%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
30%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
11%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
7%
Otro
7%
Pausa–pausa–pausa 30%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 15%
Subida–subida–pausa 13%
Pausa–Subida–Subida 10.6%
$15,084 Vol.
$15,084 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
$329 Vol.
11%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
$569 Vol.
15%
Subida–Subida–Subida
$231 Vol.
6%
Subida–subida–pausa
$474 Vol.
13%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
$623 Vol.
7%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$11,754 Vol.
30%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
$364 Vol.
11%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
$446 Vol.
7%
Otro
$294 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$15,084Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$15,084Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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