Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with September CPI rising 3.7% year-over-year amid broad price pressures and energy spikes, has driven market-implied odds toward a Hike–Pause–Hike path for the September–October–December FOMC meetings. After the September 25-basis-point increase to the 3.75–4.00% target range, the October 28 decision to hold rates drew two dissents favoring immediate tightening, reflecting concerns over resilient consumer spending and strong economic growth. Traders now price roughly an 80% probability of a December hike, consistent with the 68% implied odds for the full sequence, as fresh labor-market and PCE data ahead of the December 8–9 meeting could confirm whether further policy tightening is required.