The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, its first hike since 2023, anchors trader sentiment for additional tightening in 2026. Updated FOMC projections lifted the median year-end 2026 rate expectation to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants forecasting at least one more quarter-point move amid sticky inflation—August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE projections reached 3.4%. Solid growth and labor market data reinforced the hawkish shift under Chair Warsh. Market-implied odds of further hikes this year exceed 80% in futures pricing, while the two-year Treasury yield near 4.7% embeds expectations of roughly three additional quarter-point increases through 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, September CPI release, and ongoing energy price pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
84% probabilidad
NUEVO
$45,333 Vol.
NUEVO
$45,333 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sí
84% probabilidad
NUEVO
$45,333 Vol.
NUEVO
$45,333 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, its first hike since 2023, anchors trader sentiment for additional tightening in 2026. Updated FOMC projections lifted the median year-end 2026 rate expectation to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants forecasting at least one more quarter-point move amid sticky inflation—August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE projections reached 3.4%. Solid growth and labor market data reinforced the hawkish shift under Chair Warsh. Market-implied odds of further hikes this year exceed 80% in futures pricing, while the two-year Treasury yield near 4.7% embeds expectations of roughly three additional quarter-point increases through 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, September CPI release, and ongoing energy price pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$45,333Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, its first hike since 2023, anchors trader sentiment for additional tightening in 2026. Updated FOMC projections lifted the median year-end 2026 rate expectation to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants forecasting at least one more quarter-point move amid sticky inflation—August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE projections reached 3.4%. Solid growth and labor market data reinforced the hawkish shift under Chair Warsh. Market-implied odds of further hikes this year exceed 80% in futures pricing, while the two-year Treasury yield near 4.7% embeds expectations of roughly three additional quarter-point increases through 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, September CPI release, and ongoing energy price pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$45,333Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, its first hike since 2023, anchors trader sentiment for additional tightening in 2026. Updated FOMC projections lifted the median year-end 2026 rate expectation to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants forecasting at least one more quarter-point move amid sticky inflation—August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE projections reached 3.4%. Solid growth and labor market data reinforced the hawkish shift under Chair Warsh. Market-implied odds of further hikes this year exceed 80% in futures pricing, while the two-year Treasury yield near 4.7% embeds expectations of roughly three additional quarter-point increases through 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, September CPI release, and ongoing energy price pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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