Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a strong lead in trader consensus for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s October 4 Senate election due to consistent polling advantages and structural positioning. Recent surveys from August 2026, including Quaest and Ranking Brasil, place him at 22-32% in first-preference voting, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15-21% and other contenders such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Azambuja benefits from high name recognition as former governor, broad regional support across interior strongholds, and the PL’s consolidation of the center-right base supporting Governor Eduardo Riedel. Contar trails despite conservative appeal, while opposition candidates split support. Nelsinho Trad’s decision to serve as Azambuja’s alternate further streamlined the PL ticket. These dynamics have kept Azambuja’s implied probability elevated while capping others.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertReinaldo Azambuja 77%
Capitão Contar 12%
Luiz Lemes 1.1%
Valderi Garcia <1%
$17,802 Vol.
$17,802 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
77%
Capitão Contar
12%
Luiz Lemes
1%
Valderi Garcia
1%
Valter da Comagran
1%
Roberto Oshiro
1%
Beto do Movimento
<1%
Soraya
<1%
Vander Loubet
<1%
Daniel Junior
<1%
Reinaldo Azambuja 77%
Capitão Contar 12%
Luiz Lemes 1.1%
Valderi Garcia <1%
$17,802 Vol.
$17,802 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$10,692 Vol.
77%
Capitão Contar
$2,517 Vol.
12%
Luiz Lemes
$591 Vol.
1%
Valderi Garcia
$570 Vol.
1%
Valter da Comagran
$638 Vol.
1%
Roberto Oshiro
$634 Vol.
1%
Beto do Movimento
$576 Vol.
<1%
Soraya
$571 Vol.
<1%
Vander Loubet
$550 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Junior
$463 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a strong lead in trader consensus for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s October 4 Senate election due to consistent polling advantages and structural positioning. Recent surveys from August 2026, including Quaest and Ranking Brasil, place him at 22-32% in first-preference voting, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15-21% and other contenders such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Azambuja benefits from high name recognition as former governor, broad regional support across interior strongholds, and the PL’s consolidation of the center-right base supporting Governor Eduardo Riedel. Contar trails despite conservative appeal, while opposition candidates split support. Nelsinho Trad’s decision to serve as Azambuja’s alternate further streamlined the PL ticket. These dynamics have kept Azambuja’s implied probability elevated while capping others.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volumen
$17,802Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a strong lead in trader consensus for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s October 4 Senate election due to consistent polling advantages and structural positioning. Recent surveys from August 2026, including Quaest and Ranking Brasil, place him at 22-32% in first-preference voting, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15-21% and other contenders such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Azambuja benefits from high name recognition as former governor, broad regional support across interior strongholds, and the PL’s consolidation of the center-right base supporting Governor Eduardo Riedel. Contar trails despite conservative appeal, while opposition candidates split support. Nelsinho Trad’s decision to serve as Azambuja’s alternate further streamlined the PL ticket. These dynamics have kept Azambuja’s implied probability elevated while capping others.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$17,802Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a strong lead in trader consensus for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s October 4 Senate election due to consistent polling advantages and structural positioning. Recent surveys from August 2026, including Quaest and Ranking Brasil, place him at 22-32% in first-preference voting, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15-21% and other contenders such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Azambuja benefits from high name recognition as former governor, broad regional support across interior strongholds, and the PL’s consolidation of the center-right base supporting Governor Eduardo Riedel. Contar trails despite conservative appeal, while opposition candidates split support. Nelsinho Trad’s decision to serve as Azambuja’s alternate further streamlined the PL ticket. These dynamics have kept Azambuja’s implied probability elevated while capping others.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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