**The closely contested race for second place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate election reflects a fragmented field where PL candidates Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni compete with incumbent Esperidião Amin (PP) and Décio Lima (PT) for the remaining seat.** Recent August Quaest polling showed Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, de Toni at 12%, and Lima at 9% in combined vote intentions, with roughly 23% undecided and high rejection rates for several frontrunners. PL’s dual candidacy on the same ticket, Amin’s separate PP run, and Lima’s PT positioning create vote-splitting dynamics that keep second-place probabilities tight. The market’s pricing captures this uncertainty ahead of the single-round contest that elects the top two candidates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCarlos Bolsonaro 41%
Carol de Toni 31%
Esperidião Amin 22%
Décio Lima 3.1%
$49,696 Vol.
$49,696 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
41%
Carol de Toni
31%
Esperidião Amin
22%
Décio Lima
3%
Carol
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 41%
Carol de Toni 31%
Esperidião Amin 22%
Décio Lima 3.1%
$49,696 Vol.
$49,696 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$15,106 Vol.
41%
Carol de Toni
$12,795 Vol.
31%
Esperidião Amin
$11,022 Vol.
22%
Décio Lima
$2,539 Vol.
3%
Carol
$1,025 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$921 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$550 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$1,498 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$942 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$788 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$565 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$925 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The closely contested race for second place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate election reflects a fragmented field where PL candidates Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni compete with incumbent Esperidião Amin (PP) and Décio Lima (PT) for the remaining seat.** Recent August Quaest polling showed Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, de Toni at 12%, and Lima at 9% in combined vote intentions, with roughly 23% undecided and high rejection rates for several frontrunners. PL’s dual candidacy on the same ticket, Amin’s separate PP run, and Lima’s PT positioning create vote-splitting dynamics that keep second-place probabilities tight. The market’s pricing captures this uncertainty ahead of the single-round contest that elects the top two candidates.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volumen
$49,696Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The closely contested race for second place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate election reflects a fragmented field where PL candidates Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni compete with incumbent Esperidião Amin (PP) and Décio Lima (PT) for the remaining seat.** Recent August Quaest polling showed Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, de Toni at 12%, and Lima at 9% in combined vote intentions, with roughly 23% undecided and high rejection rates for several frontrunners. PL’s dual candidacy on the same ticket, Amin’s separate PP run, and Lima’s PT positioning create vote-splitting dynamics that keep second-place probabilities tight. The market’s pricing captures this uncertainty ahead of the single-round contest that elects the top two candidates.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$49,696Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**The closely contested race for second place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate election reflects a fragmented field where PL candidates Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni compete with incumbent Esperidião Amin (PP) and Décio Lima (PT) for the remaining seat.** Recent August Quaest polling showed Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, de Toni at 12%, and Lima at 9% in combined vote intentions, with roughly 23% undecided and high rejection rates for several frontrunners. PL’s dual candidacy on the same ticket, Amin’s separate PP run, and Lima’s PT positioning create vote-splitting dynamics that keep second-place probabilities tight. The market’s pricing captures this uncertainty ahead of the single-round contest that elects the top two candidates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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