Recent low-humidity alerts across much of Minas Gerais, with relative humidity dropping to 20–30% through late September 2026, coincide with the start of the arabica flowering window and contribute to trader uncertainty over peak severe drought. Mixed rainfall forecasts—some models showing 20–50 mm above average for the month while others project deficits—interact with strengthening El Niño conditions that historically produce irregular precipitation patterns and elevated evapotranspiration rates during September–November. Prior soil moisture deficits from the 2025–26 cycle, combined with above-normal temperatures, heighten sensitivity of coffee phenology to any extended dry spells, though recent unseasonal rains have left variable field conditions. Upcoming INMET and ECMWF updates will clarify whether cumulative water stress reaches severe thresholds on indices such as SPEI during the reproductive phase.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPeak Severe Dürre in Minas Gerais während der Kaffeeanbausaison?
Peak Severe Dürre in Minas Gerais während der Kaffeeanbausaison?
20 % bis 39,99 % 33%
40 % bis 59,99 % 20%
60 % oder mehr 18%
5 % bis 19,99 % 17%
NEU
NEU
30. Apr. 2027
Unter 5 %
6%
5 % bis 19,99 %
24%
20 % bis 39,99 %
33%
40 % bis 59,99 %
20%
60 % oder mehr
18%
20 % bis 39,99 % 33%
40 % bis 59,99 % 20%
60 % oder mehr 18%
5 % bis 19,99 % 17%
NEU
NEU
30. Apr. 2027
Unter 5 %
$342 Vol.
6%
5 % bis 19,99 %
$1,375 Vol.
24%
20 % bis 39,99 %
$3,170 Vol.
33%
40 % bis 59,99 %
$2,202 Vol.
20%
60 % oder mehr
$472 Vol.
18%
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.Recent low-humidity alerts across much of Minas Gerais, with relative humidity dropping to 20–30% through late September 2026, coincide with the start of the arabica flowering window and contribute to trader uncertainty over peak severe drought. Mixed rainfall forecasts—some models showing 20–50 mm above average for the month while others project deficits—interact with strengthening El Niño conditions that historically produce irregular precipitation patterns and elevated evapotranspiration rates during September–November. Prior soil moisture deficits from the 2025–26 cycle, combined with above-normal temperatures, heighten sensitivity of coffee phenology to any extended dry spells, though recent unseasonal rains have left variable field conditions. Upcoming INMET and ECMWF updates will clarify whether cumulative water stress reaches severe thresholds on indices such as SPEI during the reproductive phase.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Volumen
$7,561Enddatum
1. Mai 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.Recent low-humidity alerts across much of Minas Gerais, with relative humidity dropping to 20–30% through late September 2026, coincide with the start of the arabica flowering window and contribute to trader uncertainty over peak severe drought. Mixed rainfall forecasts—some models showing 20–50 mm above average for the month while others project deficits—interact with strengthening El Niño conditions that historically produce irregular precipitation patterns and elevated evapotranspiration rates during September–November. Prior soil moisture deficits from the 2025–26 cycle, combined with above-normal temperatures, heighten sensitivity of coffee phenology to any extended dry spells, though recent unseasonal rains have left variable field conditions. Upcoming INMET and ECMWF updates will clarify whether cumulative water stress reaches severe thresholds on indices such as SPEI during the reproductive phase.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
Volumen
$7,561Enddatum
1. Mai 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent low-humidity alerts across much of Minas Gerais, with relative humidity dropping to 20–30% through late September 2026, coincide with the start of the arabica flowering window and contribute to trader uncertainty over peak severe drought. Mixed rainfall forecasts—some models showing 20–50 mm above average for the month while others project deficits—interact with strengthening El Niño conditions that historically produce irregular precipitation patterns and elevated evapotranspiration rates during September–November. Prior soil moisture deficits from the 2025–26 cycle, combined with above-normal temperatures, heighten sensitivity of coffee phenology to any extended dry spells, though recent unseasonal rains have left variable field conditions. Upcoming INMET and ECMWF updates will clarify whether cumulative water stress reaches severe thresholds on indices such as SPEI during the reproductive phase.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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