Janaina Riva leads the implied probability for second place in Mato Grosso's October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates for the seats, reflecting consistent polling patterns that place her behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes. Recent surveys, including those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas through early September, show Mendes consolidating strong first-preference support around 27-52% while Riva maintains competitive second-preference backing near 26-34%, positioning the pair well ahead of José Medeiros, Pedro Taques, and Carlos Fávaro. This dynamic stems from Mendes's profile as the outgoing governor and Riva's established base as a state deputy within the MDB-led coalition, with limited movement among lower-polling names like Professor Nelson Ferreira or Margareth Buzetti in the final weeks. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns with the absence of major late shifts in voter preference data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJanaina Riva 64%
Mauro Mendes 31%
Jose Medeiros 8.1%
Fávaro 1.1%
$25,525 Vol.
$25,525 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Janaina Riva
64%
Mauro Mendes
31%
Jose Medeiros
8%
Fávaro
1%
Pedro Taques
<1%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
<1%
Beny Godoy
<1%
Coronel Darwin
<1%
Galvan
<1%
Margareth Buzetti
<1%
Janaina Riva 64%
Mauro Mendes 31%
Jose Medeiros 8.1%
Fávaro 1.1%
$25,525 Vol.
$25,525 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Janaina Riva
$13,003 Vol.
64%
Mauro Mendes
$7,364 Vol.
31%
Jose Medeiros
$746 Vol.
8%
Fávaro
$676 Vol.
1%
Pedro Taques
$773 Vol.
<1%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
$572 Vol.
<1%
Beny Godoy
$583 Vol.
<1%
Coronel Darwin
$578 Vol.
<1%
Galvan
$647 Vol.
<1%
Margareth Buzetti
$583 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Janaina Riva leads the implied probability for second place in Mato Grosso's October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates for the seats, reflecting consistent polling patterns that place her behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes. Recent surveys, including those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas through early September, show Mendes consolidating strong first-preference support around 27-52% while Riva maintains competitive second-preference backing near 26-34%, positioning the pair well ahead of José Medeiros, Pedro Taques, and Carlos Fávaro. This dynamic stems from Mendes's profile as the outgoing governor and Riva's established base as a state deputy within the MDB-led coalition, with limited movement among lower-polling names like Professor Nelson Ferreira or Margareth Buzetti in the final weeks. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns with the absence of major late shifts in voter preference data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volumen
$25,525Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Janaina Riva leads the implied probability for second place in Mato Grosso's October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates for the seats, reflecting consistent polling patterns that place her behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes. Recent surveys, including those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas through early September, show Mendes consolidating strong first-preference support around 27-52% while Riva maintains competitive second-preference backing near 26-34%, positioning the pair well ahead of José Medeiros, Pedro Taques, and Carlos Fávaro. This dynamic stems from Mendes's profile as the outgoing governor and Riva's established base as a state deputy within the MDB-led coalition, with limited movement among lower-polling names like Professor Nelson Ferreira or Margareth Buzetti in the final weeks. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns with the absence of major late shifts in voter preference data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$25,525Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Janaina Riva leads the implied probability for second place in Mato Grosso's October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates for the seats, reflecting consistent polling patterns that place her behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes. Recent surveys, including those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas through early September, show Mendes consolidating strong first-preference support around 27-52% while Riva maintains competitive second-preference backing near 26-34%, positioning the pair well ahead of José Medeiros, Pedro Taques, and Carlos Fávaro. This dynamic stems from Mendes's profile as the outgoing governor and Riva's established base as a state deputy within the MDB-led coalition, with limited movement among lower-polling names like Professor Nelson Ferreira or Margareth Buzetti in the final weeks. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns with the absence of major late shifts in voter preference data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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