The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell over alleged false testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovation cost overruns—now totaling $2.46 billion—remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities of federal charges near zero through year-end. A federal judge had already quashed grand jury subpoenas in March, citing no evidence of criminal conduct beyond policy friction with the prior administration on interest rates. Referral of the matter to the Fed’s inspector general, who previously identified no fraud, further reduces prospects for indictment. With Powell’s term as chair concluded and no renewed investigative activity reported, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the probe’s effective end, though any adverse IG findings could theoretically reopen scrutiny before December 31.