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icon for Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?
Economy·Belohnungen 200, 4,5, 50 Deprec

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

icon for Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?
Economy·Belohnungen 200, 4,5, 50 Deprec

Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?

0 (0 Basispunkte) 96.0%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 1.1%

2 (50 Basispunkte) <1%

3 (75 Basispunkte) <1%

Polymarket

$53,125,550 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte) 96.0%

1 (25 Basispunkte) 1.1%

2 (50 Basispunkte) <1%

3 (75 Basispunkte) <1%

Polymarket

$53,125,550 Vol.

0 (0 Basispunkte)

$8,469,394 Vol.

96%

1 (25 Basispunkte)

$3,263,805 Vol.

1%

2 (50 Basispunkte)

$3,241,788 Vol.

1%

3 (75 Basispunkte)

$2,928,629 Vol.

<1%

4 (100 Basispunkte)

$2,729,849 Vol.

<1%

5 (125 Basispunkte)

$2,988,671 Vol.

<1%

6 (150 Basispunkte)

$4,222,076 Vol.

<1%

7 (175 Basispunkte)

$3,523,869 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 Basispunkte)

$3,292,613 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 Basispunkte)

$4,286,511 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 Basispunkte)

$4,951,980 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 Basispunkte)

$5,268,834 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ Basispunkte)

$3,957,532 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16, alongside revised Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1% median federal funds rate at the end of both 2026 and 2027, anchors the 96% market-implied probability of zero cuts this year. Elevated inflation—PCE at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.4% for 2026—combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%) and solid GDP growth forecasts have shifted the policy path toward further tightening rather than easing. Traders price in this hawkish stance as the baseline, with the next FOMC meetings and upcoming inflation releases serving as key tests. A sharp, sustained disinflation or unexpected labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to cuts, though current data and official guidance make such shifts unlikely before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$53,125,550
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16, alongside revised Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1% median federal funds rate at the end of both 2026 and 2027, anchors the 96% market-implied probability of zero cuts this year. Elevated inflation—PCE at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.4% for 2026—combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%) and solid GDP growth forecasts have shifted the policy path toward further tightening rather than easing. Traders price in this hawkish stance as the baseline, with the next FOMC meetings and upcoming inflation releases serving as key tests. A sharp, sustained disinflation or unexpected labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to cuts, though current data and official guidance make such shifts unlikely before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$53,125,550
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

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Werden im Jahr 2026 zwei Zinserhöhungen der Fed stattfinden?

61%
Ja
icon for Zinssenkung der Fed bis zur Sitzung im Juli 2027?

Zinssenkung der Fed bis zur Sitzung im Juli 2027?

48%
Ja
icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

68%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Zinssenkungen der Fed im Jahr 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „0 (0 Basispunkte)" mit 96%, gefolgt von „1 (25 Basispunkte)" mit 1%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 96¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 96% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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