The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$3,931,762 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
Aprilsitzung
Nein
Junisitzung
Nein
Julisitzung
Nein
September-Treffen
Ja
Oktobersitzung
Ja
$3,931,762 Vol.
Aprilsitzung
$131,308 Vol.
Nein
Junisitzung
$45,785 Vol.
Nein
Julisitzung
$782,907 Vol.
Nein
September-Treffen
$1,909,469 Vol.
Ja
Oktobersitzung
$1,062,293 Vol.
Ja
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$3,931,762Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,931,762Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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