Recent quarterly data show U.S. real GDP expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 2026 before slowing to 1.5% in Q2, with consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment (led by AI-related capital expenditures) providing the main offsets to softer government outlays and net exports. Forecasters from the IMF, Deloitte, and FOMC project 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, yet elevated inflation readings near 3.7% PCE and the possibility of steady or higher Fed funds rates introduce downside risks to consumption. The near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets reflect uncertainty over Q3–Q4 momentum, upcoming inflation releases, and whether AI-driven investment can sustain above-trend expansion amid fading fiscal support.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 45.0%
2.0–2.5% 44%
>2.5% 14.0%
<0.5% 3.3%
$60,606 Vol.
$60,606 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
3%
1.5–2.0%
42%
2.0–2.5%
44%
>2.5%
9%
1.5–2.0% 45.0%
2.0–2.5% 44%
>2.5% 14.0%
<0.5% 3.3%
$60,606 Vol.
$60,606 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$7,659 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,367 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$3,951 Vol.
3%
1.5–2.0%
$7,581 Vol.
42%
2.0–2.5%
$7,920 Vol.
44%
>2.5%
$16,129 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly data show U.S. real GDP expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 2026 before slowing to 1.5% in Q2, with consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment (led by AI-related capital expenditures) providing the main offsets to softer government outlays and net exports. Forecasters from the IMF, Deloitte, and FOMC project 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, yet elevated inflation readings near 3.7% PCE and the possibility of steady or higher Fed funds rates introduce downside risks to consumption. The near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets reflect uncertainty over Q3–Q4 momentum, upcoming inflation releases, and whether AI-driven investment can sustain above-trend expansion amid fading fiscal support.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$60,606শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly data show U.S. real GDP expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 2026 before slowing to 1.5% in Q2, with consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment (led by AI-related capital expenditures) providing the main offsets to softer government outlays and net exports. Forecasters from the IMF, Deloitte, and FOMC project 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, yet elevated inflation readings near 3.7% PCE and the possibility of steady or higher Fed funds rates introduce downside risks to consumption. The near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets reflect uncertainty over Q3–Q4 momentum, upcoming inflation releases, and whether AI-driven investment can sustain above-trend expansion amid fading fiscal support.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ভলিউম
$60,606শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...Recent quarterly data show U.S. real GDP expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 2026 before slowing to 1.5% in Q2, with consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment (led by AI-related capital expenditures) providing the main offsets to softer government outlays and net exports. Forecasters from the IMF, Deloitte, and FOMC project 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, yet elevated inflation readings near 3.7% PCE and the possibility of steady or higher Fed funds rates introduce downside risks to consumption. The near-even market-implied odds between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets reflect uncertainty over Q3–Q4 momentum, upcoming inflation releases, and whether AI-driven investment can sustain above-trend expansion amid fading fiscal support.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা