Strong FOMC and private-sector consensus forecasts project 2.0–2.3% real GDP growth for 2026, with the median SEP at 2.3% and recent nowcasts showing Q3 expansion near 3–5%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business fixed investment, and steady labor-market conditions (unemployment near 4.1–4.3%) have sustained positive quarterly growth through mid-year despite elevated inflation and energy prices. With three quarters complete and Q4 tracking solidly positive, market-implied odds of 98% against contraction reflect this data-driven baseline rather than speculation. Tail risks remain limited to severe geopolitical escalation or abrupt policy shocks that could tip late-quarter readings negative, though current indicators show little sign of such disruption.