Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, combined with resilient labor market data showing unemployment near 4.1% and solid August job gains, has anchored trader expectations for no further federal funds rate cuts in 2026. Recent FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh and economist surveys reflect a hawkish tilt, with the policy rate held at 3.75% and markets assigning elevated odds of hikes at the September 15-16 meeting rather than easing. This pricing aligns with tempered but still above-target core PCE readings and supply-side pressures. A sharp deterioration in employment or decisive further disinflation could reopen the door to cuts, though such shifts appear unlikely near term based on incoming data.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed maintains cautious stance on rate cuts amid persistent inflation and labor market stability
0 (0 bps) jumps to 93%7%
As of September 2026, the Fed has maintained rates with no additional cuts, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target and a stable labor market. Market pricing shows a high probability of zero cuts for the year.
Market pricing shows strong consensus for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 93%4%
By early September 2026, prediction markets and futures data indicated a dominant market belief that the Fed would not cut rates in 2026, with the 0 (0 bps) outcome price rising to 93%, reflecting confidence in the Fed's steady policy stance.




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