Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, have driven the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.28% as of September 9, 2026, up roughly 0.75 percentage points over the past year. Persistent core inflation, resilient labor market data, and elevated term premium tied to fiscal supply and AI-driven growth expectations have anchored long-term rates higher, reducing prospects for sharp declines before year-end. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated dot plot, and incoming CPI and PPI prints this week represent key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds if inflation readings moderate or policy guidance turns more dovish. Traders price in limited further downside from current levels absent clearer disinflation evidence.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডনতুন
Dec 30, 2026
Below 5.20%
80%
Below 5.15%
72%
Below 5.10%
63%
Below 5.05%
55%
Below 5.00%
46%
Below 4.95%
41%
Below 4.90%
35%
Below 4.80%
22%
Below 4.60%
16%
$121 Vol.
Below 5.20%
$0 Vol.
80%
Below 5.15%
$0 Vol.
72%
Below 5.10%
$60 Vol.
63%
Below 5.05%
$0 Vol.
55%
Below 5.00%
$0 Vol.
46%
Below 4.95%
$0 Vol.
41%
Below 4.90%
$61 Vol.
35%
Below 4.80%
$0 Vol.
22%
Below 4.60%
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, have driven the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.28% as of September 9, 2026, up roughly 0.75 percentage points over the past year. Persistent core inflation, resilient labor market data, and elevated term premium tied to fiscal supply and AI-driven growth expectations have anchored long-term rates higher, reducing prospects for sharp declines before year-end. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated dot plot, and incoming CPI and PPI prints this week represent key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds if inflation readings moderate or policy guidance turns more dovish. Traders price in limited further downside from current levels absent clearer disinflation evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
ভলিউম
$121শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, have driven the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.28% as of September 9, 2026, up roughly 0.75 percentage points over the past year. Persistent core inflation, resilient labor market data, and elevated term premium tied to fiscal supply and AI-driven growth expectations have anchored long-term rates higher, reducing prospects for sharp declines before year-end. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated dot plot, and incoming CPI and PPI prints this week represent key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds if inflation readings moderate or policy guidance turns more dovish. Traders price in limited further downside from current levels absent clearer disinflation evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
ভলিউম
$121শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, have driven the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.28% as of September 9, 2026, up roughly 0.75 percentage points over the past year. Persistent core inflation, resilient labor market data, and elevated term premium tied to fiscal supply and AI-driven growth expectations have anchored long-term rates higher, reducing prospects for sharp declines before year-end. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated dot plot, and incoming CPI and PPI prints this week represent key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds if inflation readings moderate or policy guidance turns more dovish. Traders price in limited further downside from current levels absent clearer disinflation evidence.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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