Tesla’s limited Cybercab rollout and lack of retail sales infrastructure keep the market-implied odds of a sub-$30,000 consumer sale by year-end heavily tilted toward “No.” Production began at low volume in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, yielding just 45 registered units by early September, with paid robotaxi rides starting in Austin only recently. Tesla has yet to publish an official MSRP, open a consumer configurator, or confirm direct retail availability, instead directing fleet-operator interest forms while analysts distinguish between targeted production costs at scale and sticker prices for individual buyers. Ongoing NHTSA scrutiny of self-certification and slow unsupervised FSD expansion further constrain any rapid shift to consumer deliveries before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
17% 概率
$55,565 交易量
$55,565 交易量
2026-12-31
是
17% 概率
$55,565 交易量
$55,565 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s limited Cybercab rollout and lack of retail sales infrastructure keep the market-implied odds of a sub-$30,000 consumer sale by year-end heavily tilted toward “No.” Production began at low volume in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, yielding just 45 registered units by early September, with paid robotaxi rides starting in Austin only recently. Tesla has yet to publish an official MSRP, open a consumer configurator, or confirm direct retail availability, instead directing fleet-operator interest forms while analysts distinguish between targeted production costs at scale and sticker prices for individual buyers. Ongoing NHTSA scrutiny of self-certification and slow unsupervised FSD expansion further constrain any rapid shift to consumer deliveries before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$55,565结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s limited Cybercab rollout and lack of retail sales infrastructure keep the market-implied odds of a sub-$30,000 consumer sale by year-end heavily tilted toward “No.” Production began at low volume in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, yielding just 45 registered units by early September, with paid robotaxi rides starting in Austin only recently. Tesla has yet to publish an official MSRP, open a consumer configurator, or confirm direct retail availability, instead directing fleet-operator interest forms while analysts distinguish between targeted production costs at scale and sticker prices for individual buyers. Ongoing NHTSA scrutiny of self-certification and slow unsupervised FSD expansion further constrain any rapid shift to consumer deliveries before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$55,565结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETTesla’s limited Cybercab rollout and lack of retail sales infrastructure keep the market-implied odds of a sub-$30,000 consumer sale by year-end heavily tilted toward “No.” Production began at low volume in early 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, yielding just 45 registered units by early September, with paid robotaxi rides starting in Austin only recently. Tesla has yet to publish an official MSRP, open a consumer configurator, or confirm direct retail availability, instead directing fleet-operator interest forms while analysts distinguish between targeted production costs at scale and sticker prices for individual buyers. Ongoing NHTSA scrutiny of self-certification and slow unsupervised FSD expansion further constrain any rapid shift to consumer deliveries before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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