Tesla’s prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and Full Self-Driving scaling at Giga Texas underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus at 90.5% implied probability. The Robovan, unveiled as a concept autonomous van in October 2024 capable of carrying up to 20 passengers or cargo, still lacks any announced manufacturing site, battery specifications, regulatory approvals, or production timeline nearly two years later. Recent activity has been limited to a design patent granted in August 2026 and a conceptual render in a Terafab video, with shareholder updates deferring volume targets for larger platforms while directing capital toward Cybercab fleet deployment. Historical patterns of timeline slippage and the absence of imminent catalysts make pre-2027 orders unlikely, though rapid Cybercab success or regulatory shifts could accelerate development.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
10% 概率
$32,092 交易量
$32,092 交易量
2026-12-31
是
10% 概率
$32,092 交易量
$32,092 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and Full Self-Driving scaling at Giga Texas underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus at 90.5% implied probability. The Robovan, unveiled as a concept autonomous van in October 2024 capable of carrying up to 20 passengers or cargo, still lacks any announced manufacturing site, battery specifications, regulatory approvals, or production timeline nearly two years later. Recent activity has been limited to a design patent granted in August 2026 and a conceptual render in a Terafab video, with shareholder updates deferring volume targets for larger platforms while directing capital toward Cybercab fleet deployment. Historical patterns of timeline slippage and the absence of imminent catalysts make pre-2027 orders unlikely, though rapid Cybercab success or regulatory shifts could accelerate development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
交易量
$32,092结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and Full Self-Driving scaling at Giga Texas underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus at 90.5% implied probability. The Robovan, unveiled as a concept autonomous van in October 2024 capable of carrying up to 20 passengers or cargo, still lacks any announced manufacturing site, battery specifications, regulatory approvals, or production timeline nearly two years later. Recent activity has been limited to a design patent granted in August 2026 and a conceptual render in a Terafab video, with shareholder updates deferring volume targets for larger platforms while directing capital toward Cybercab fleet deployment. Historical patterns of timeline slippage and the absence of imminent catalysts make pre-2027 orders unlikely, though rapid Cybercab success or regulatory shifts could accelerate development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$32,092结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETTesla’s prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and Full Self-Driving scaling at Giga Texas underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus at 90.5% implied probability. The Robovan, unveiled as a concept autonomous van in October 2024 capable of carrying up to 20 passengers or cargo, still lacks any announced manufacturing site, battery specifications, regulatory approvals, or production timeline nearly two years later. Recent activity has been limited to a design patent granted in August 2026 and a conceptual render in a Terafab video, with shareholder updates deferring volume targets for larger platforms while directing capital toward Cybercab fleet deployment. Historical patterns of timeline slippage and the absence of imminent catalysts make pre-2027 orders unlikely, though rapid Cybercab success or regulatory shifts could accelerate development.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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