Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence drives the near-100% market-implied odds that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September for more than a decade, supported by mature supply chains, established manufacturing partnerships, and predictable hardware roadmaps. Traders see no credible signals of postponement as of September 2026, with component production and regulatory filings aligning to historical patterns. While extreme supply disruptions, major software delays, or unforeseen regulatory blocks could theoretically shift timing, these remain low-probability tail risks that have not materialized in prior cycles and are discounted heavily by the capital-backed consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
>99% 概率
$235,610 交易量
$235,610 交易量
2026-12-31
是
>99% 概率
$235,610 交易量
$235,610 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence drives the near-100% market-implied odds that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September for more than a decade, supported by mature supply chains, established manufacturing partnerships, and predictable hardware roadmaps. Traders see no credible signals of postponement as of September 2026, with component production and regulatory filings aligning to historical patterns. While extreme supply disruptions, major software delays, or unforeseen regulatory blocks could theoretically shift timing, these remain low-probability tail risks that have not materialized in prior cycles and are discounted heavily by the capital-backed consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$235,610结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence drives the near-100% market-implied odds that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September for more than a decade, supported by mature supply chains, established manufacturing partnerships, and predictable hardware roadmaps. Traders see no credible signals of postponement as of September 2026, with component production and regulatory filings aligning to historical patterns. While extreme supply disruptions, major software delays, or unforeseen regulatory blocks could theoretically shift timing, these remain low-probability tail risks that have not materialized in prior cycles and are discounted heavily by the capital-backed consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$235,610结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETApple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence drives the near-100% market-implied odds that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September for more than a decade, supported by mature supply chains, established manufacturing partnerships, and predictable hardware roadmaps. Traders see no credible signals of postponement as of September 2026, with component production and regulatory filings aligning to historical patterns. While extreme supply disruptions, major software delays, or unforeseen regulatory blocks could theoretically shift timing, these remain low-probability tail risks that have not materialized in prior cycles and are discounted heavily by the capital-backed consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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