Google’s pattern of delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—remains the dominant factor behind the tightly bunched October probabilities. The model continues in limited partner testing without a confirmed general-availability date, while Google has instead shipped multiple 3.8-series Flash and Live variants in early-to-mid September. Traders appear to weigh this release cadence, the start of Gemini 4 pre-training, and competitive pressure from faster-moving rivals in coding and agentic benchmarks against Google’s historical tendency for conservative flagship rollouts. Any new developer-conference update or API changelog entry could shift the current consensus before the November resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日 22%
10月5日–10月11日 16.4%
在11月1日前不发布 15%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日 14.2%
$53,310 交易量
$53,310 交易量
2026-09-20
9月14日–9月20日
4%
9月21日–9月27日
7%
9 月 28 日–10 月 4 日
4%
10月5日–10月11日
16%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日
22%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日
14%
10 月 26 日–11 月 1 日
11%
在11月1日前不发布
15%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日 22%
10月5日–10月11日 16.4%
在11月1日前不发布 15%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日 14.2%
$53,310 交易量
$53,310 交易量
2026-09-20
9月14日–9月20日
$412 交易量
4%
9月21日–9月27日
$759 交易量
7%
9 月 28 日–10 月 4 日
$1,591 交易量
4%
10月5日–10月11日
$435 交易量
16%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日
$2,693 交易量
22%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日
$1,096 交易量
14%
10 月 26 日–11 月 1 日
$590 交易量
11%
在11月1日前不发布
$42,739 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s pattern of delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—remains the dominant factor behind the tightly bunched October probabilities. The model continues in limited partner testing without a confirmed general-availability date, while Google has instead shipped multiple 3.8-series Flash and Live variants in early-to-mid September. Traders appear to weigh this release cadence, the start of Gemini 4 pre-training, and competitive pressure from faster-moving rivals in coding and agentic benchmarks against Google’s historical tendency for conservative flagship rollouts. Any new developer-conference update or API changelog entry could shift the current consensus before the November resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
交易量
$53,310结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s pattern of delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—remains the dominant factor behind the tightly bunched October probabilities. The model continues in limited partner testing without a confirmed general-availability date, while Google has instead shipped multiple 3.8-series Flash and Live variants in early-to-mid September. Traders appear to weigh this release cadence, the start of Gemini 4 pre-training, and competitive pressure from faster-moving rivals in coding and agentic benchmarks against Google’s historical tendency for conservative flagship rollouts. Any new developer-conference update or API changelog entry could shift the current consensus before the November resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$53,310结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETGoogle’s pattern of delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—remains the dominant factor behind the tightly bunched October probabilities. The model continues in limited partner testing without a confirmed general-availability date, while Google has instead shipped multiple 3.8-series Flash and Live variants in early-to-mid September. Traders appear to weigh this release cadence, the start of Gemini 4 pre-training, and competitive pressure from faster-moving rivals in coding and agentic benchmarks against Google’s historical tendency for conservative flagship rollouts. Any new developer-conference update or API changelog entry could shift the current consensus before the November resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题