Marcelo Castro (MDB) holds the lead in trader consensus for first place in Piauí’s 2026 Senate race, reflecting consistent polling advantages in first-preference and consolidated vote scenarios from mid-2026 surveys. The contest for the state’s two seats features a tight three-way battle among Castro, Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD), with elevated undecided shares and blank/null responses limiting separation. Nogueira’s notably higher rejection rates in multiple polls constrain his upside for the top spot despite competitive totals, while the other two benefit from alignment with Governor Rafael Fonteles’ base. Recent developments, including President Lula’s September 9 visit to bolster the governista ticket without directly targeting Nogueira, underscore coalition dynamics that could influence late momentum. High uncertainty persists ahead of October voting, with further polling or campaign events likely to clarify ordering among the frontrunners.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Marcelo Castro 53%
Ciro Nogueira 29%
Julio Cesar 16.0%
Alexandre Mariano <1%
$39,672 交易量
$39,672 交易量
Marcelo Castro
53%
Ciro Nogueira
29%
Julio Cesar
10%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Tiago Junqueira
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Marcelo Castro 53%
Ciro Nogueira 29%
Julio Cesar 16.0%
Alexandre Mariano <1%
$39,672 交易量
$39,672 交易量
Marcelo Castro
53%
Ciro Nogueira
29%
Julio Cesar
10%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Tiago Junqueira
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marcelo Castro (MDB) holds the lead in trader consensus for first place in Piauí’s 2026 Senate race, reflecting consistent polling advantages in first-preference and consolidated vote scenarios from mid-2026 surveys. The contest for the state’s two seats features a tight three-way battle among Castro, Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD), with elevated undecided shares and blank/null responses limiting separation. Nogueira’s notably higher rejection rates in multiple polls constrain his upside for the top spot despite competitive totals, while the other two benefit from alignment with Governor Rafael Fonteles’ base. Recent developments, including President Lula’s September 9 visit to bolster the governista ticket without directly targeting Nogueira, underscore coalition dynamics that could influence late momentum. High uncertainty persists ahead of October voting, with further polling or campaign events likely to clarify ordering among the frontrunners.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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