Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月17日 38.4%
9月16日 37.5%
9月15日 37.3%
9月12日 33.8%
最新
最新
2026-09-09
在2026年9月9日或之前
-
9月10日
1%
9月11日
1%
9月12日
34%
9 月 13 日
1%
9月14日
32%
9月15日
37%
9月16日
37%
9月17日
38%
9月18日
23%
9月19日
1%
9月20日
1%
9月21日
1%
9 月 22 日
3%
9月23日
7%
9月24日
3%
9月25日
1%
9月26日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9月28日
1%
9 月 29 日
1%
9月30日
1%
截至9月30日没有发布
3%
9月17日 38.4%
9月16日 37.5%
9月15日 37.3%
9月12日 33.8%
最新
最新
2026-09-09
在2026年9月9日或之前
$166 交易量
-
9月10日
$202 交易量
1%
9月11日
$205 交易量
1%
9月12日
$550 交易量
34%
9 月 13 日
$322 交易量
1%
9月14日
$205 交易量
32%
9月15日
$257 交易量
37%
9月16日
$215 交易量
37%
9月17日
$215 交易量
38%
9月18日
$411 交易量
23%
9月19日
$530 交易量
1%
9月20日
$505 交易量
1%
9月21日
$505 交易量
1%
9 月 22 日
$345 交易量
3%
9月23日
$572 交易量
7%
9月24日
$345 交易量
3%
9月25日
$505 交易量
1%
9月26日
$505 交易量
<1%
9月27日
$505 交易量
<1%
9月28日
$379 交易量
1%
9 月 29 日
$379 交易量
1%
9月30日
$505 交易量
1%
截至9月30日没有发布
$345 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
交易量
$8,674结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$8,674结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETElon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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