The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus uses a mixed-member proportional system with a 130-seat minimum that expands through overhang from direct constituency wins and leveling seats to maintain proportionality. Multiple parties clearing the 5% threshold—projected for Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, SPD, and possibly BSW—drives additional leveling mandates, while the CDU’s historical strength in the 78 constituencies generates overhang. Recent polling showed a fragmented field with Linke leading and six parties competitive ahead of the September 20 vote, building on the chamber’s growth from 147 seats in 2021 to 159 in 2023. Trader consensus favors 158–162 seats as the most likely outcome under these conditions, with higher totals possible only if even more parties qualify or direct-mandate imbalances widen further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于163个及以上 29%
少于143 9.2%
153–157 1.0%
143–147 <1%
$26,023 交易量
$26,023 交易量
2026-09-20
少于143
9%
143–147
<1%
148–152
<1%
153–157
10%
158–162
55%
163个及以上
15%
163个及以上 29%
少于143 9.2%
153–157 1.0%
143–147 <1%
$26,023 交易量
$26,023 交易量
2026-09-20
少于143
$4,364 交易量
9%
143–147
$2,466 交易量
<1%
148–152
$1,136 交易量
<1%
153–157
$1,580 交易量
10%
158–162
$3,012 交易量
55%
163个及以上
$13,465 交易量
15%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus uses a mixed-member proportional system with a 130-seat minimum that expands through overhang from direct constituency wins and leveling seats to maintain proportionality. Multiple parties clearing the 5% threshold—projected for Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, SPD, and possibly BSW—drives additional leveling mandates, while the CDU’s historical strength in the 78 constituencies generates overhang. Recent polling showed a fragmented field with Linke leading and six parties competitive ahead of the September 20 vote, building on the chamber’s growth from 147 seats in 2021 to 159 in 2023. Trader consensus favors 158–162 seats as the most likely outcome under these conditions, with higher totals possible only if even more parties qualify or direct-mandate imbalances widen further.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
交易量
$26,023结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETElections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus uses a mixed-member proportional system with a 130-seat minimum that expands through overhang from direct constituency wins and leveling seats to maintain proportionality. Multiple parties clearing the 5% threshold—projected for Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, SPD, and possibly BSW—drives additional leveling mandates, while the CDU’s historical strength in the 78 constituencies generates overhang. Recent polling showed a fragmented field with Linke leading and six parties competitive ahead of the September 20 vote, building on the chamber’s growth from 147 seats in 2021 to 159 in 2023. Trader consensus favors 158–162 seats as the most likely outcome under these conditions, with higher totals possible only if even more parties qualify or direct-mandate imbalances widen further.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$26,023结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETThe Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus uses a mixed-member proportional system with a 130-seat minimum that expands through overhang from direct constituency wins and leveling seats to maintain proportionality. Multiple parties clearing the 5% threshold—projected for Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, SPD, and possibly BSW—drives additional leveling mandates, while the CDU’s historical strength in the 78 constituencies generates overhang. Recent polling showed a fragmented field with Linke leading and six parties competitive ahead of the September 20 vote, building on the chamber’s growth from 147 seats in 2021 to 159 in 2023. Trader consensus favors 158–162 seats as the most likely outcome under these conditions, with higher totals possible only if even more parties qualify or direct-mandate imbalances widen further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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