Recent local election results in Camden wards showed the Green Party at 28-29% against Labour's 38%, establishing a competitive baseline that has shaped trader expectations for a 30-40% Green share in the October 8 by-election. Zack Polanski's selection as the Green candidate on September 11 has concentrated party resources and visibility in the constituency, while Labour's choice of Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali provides an established local figure. The contest is viewed as a two-way race between these parties, with limited scope for other candidates to fragment the vote significantly. Upcoming campaign activity through early October and any shifts in national polling under Labour's new leadership could widen or narrow the gap in final vote shares.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于35-40% 28%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 23%
少于20% 15%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少于20%
15%
20-25%
7%
25-30%
23%
30-35%
27%
35-40%
34%
40%+
6%
35-40% 28%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 23%
少于20% 15%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少于20%
$629 交易量
15%
20-25%
$395 交易量
7%
25-30%
$554 交易量
23%
30-35%
$438 交易量
27%
35-40%
$759 交易量
34%
40%+
$314 交易量
6%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Recent local election results in Camden wards showed the Green Party at 28-29% against Labour's 38%, establishing a competitive baseline that has shaped trader expectations for a 30-40% Green share in the October 8 by-election. Zack Polanski's selection as the Green candidate on September 11 has concentrated party resources and visibility in the constituency, while Labour's choice of Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali provides an established local figure. The contest is viewed as a two-way race between these parties, with limited scope for other candidates to fragment the vote significantly. Upcoming campaign activity through early October and any shifts in national polling under Labour's new leadership could widen or narrow the gap in final vote shares.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
交易量
$3,089结束日期
2026-10-08市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETA by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Recent local election results in Camden wards showed the Green Party at 28-29% against Labour's 38%, establishing a competitive baseline that has shaped trader expectations for a 30-40% Green share in the October 8 by-election. Zack Polanski's selection as the Green candidate on September 11 has concentrated party resources and visibility in the constituency, while Labour's choice of Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali provides an established local figure. The contest is viewed as a two-way race between these parties, with limited scope for other candidates to fragment the vote significantly. Upcoming campaign activity through early October and any shifts in national polling under Labour's new leadership could widen or narrow the gap in final vote shares.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
交易量
$3,089结束日期
2026-10-08市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRecent local election results in Camden wards showed the Green Party at 28-29% against Labour's 38%, establishing a competitive baseline that has shaped trader expectations for a 30-40% Green share in the October 8 by-election. Zack Polanski's selection as the Green candidate on September 11 has concentrated party resources and visibility in the constituency, while Labour's choice of Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali provides an established local figure. The contest is viewed as a two-way race between these parties, with limited scope for other candidates to fragment the vote significantly. Upcoming campaign activity through early October and any shifts in national polling under Labour's new leadership could widen or narrow the gap in final vote shares.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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