Meta's Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of mid-September 2026, with trader sentiment shaped by internal documents and executive updates pointing to an October release target. Alexandr Wang, head of Meta Superintelligence Labs, stated in a July town hall that the model uses roughly 10 times the compute of Muse Spark (April 2026) and matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on unnamed internal benchmarks, a claim resting on proprietary evaluations rather than public scores. Mark Zuckerberg publicly teased the model on September 2 with a promise of imminent progress alongside open-weight releases, followed by Wang confirming on September 3 that development is on track for strong competitiveness. Reports link Watermelon to Meta's planned paid AI agent platform Hatch, creating potential resolution criteria around launch timing, integration, or capability thresholds amid rapid frontier scaling by rivals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,923 交易量
2026-11-30
9 月 30 日
11%
10 月 31 日
69%
11月30日
89%
$42,923 交易量
9 月 30 日
$16,306 交易量
11%
10 月 31 日
$16,531 交易量
69%
11月30日
$10,086 交易量
89%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of mid-September 2026, with trader sentiment shaped by internal documents and executive updates pointing to an October release target. Alexandr Wang, head of Meta Superintelligence Labs, stated in a July town hall that the model uses roughly 10 times the compute of Muse Spark (April 2026) and matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on unnamed internal benchmarks, a claim resting on proprietary evaluations rather than public scores. Mark Zuckerberg publicly teased the model on September 2 with a promise of imminent progress alongside open-weight releases, followed by Wang confirming on September 3 that development is on track for strong competitiveness. Reports link Watermelon to Meta's planned paid AI agent platform Hatch, creating potential resolution criteria around launch timing, integration, or capability thresholds amid rapid frontier scaling by rivals.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
交易量
$42,923结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETOn September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of mid-September 2026, with trader sentiment shaped by internal documents and executive updates pointing to an October release target. Alexandr Wang, head of Meta Superintelligence Labs, stated in a July town hall that the model uses roughly 10 times the compute of Muse Spark (April 2026) and matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on unnamed internal benchmarks, a claim resting on proprietary evaluations rather than public scores. Mark Zuckerberg publicly teased the model on September 2 with a promise of imminent progress alongside open-weight releases, followed by Wang confirming on September 3 that development is on track for strong competitiveness. Reports link Watermelon to Meta's planned paid AI agent platform Hatch, creating potential resolution criteria around launch timing, integration, or capability thresholds amid rapid frontier scaling by rivals.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$42,923结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETMeta's Watermelon frontier large language model remains in training as of mid-September 2026, with trader sentiment shaped by internal documents and executive updates pointing to an October release target. Alexandr Wang, head of Meta Superintelligence Labs, stated in a July town hall that the model uses roughly 10 times the compute of Muse Spark (April 2026) and matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on unnamed internal benchmarks, a claim resting on proprietary evaluations rather than public scores. Mark Zuckerberg publicly teased the model on September 2 with a promise of imminent progress alongside open-weight releases, followed by Wang confirming on September 3 that development is on track for strong competitiveness. Reports link Watermelon to Meta's planned paid AI agent platform Hatch, creating potential resolution criteria around launch timing, integration, or capability thresholds amid rapid frontier scaling by rivals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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