Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson holds a commanding lead in the ID-02 House race due to his 14-term tenure, strong performance in the May 2026 Republican primary, and the district’s consistent Republican lean across eastern and rural Idaho. Election forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and Simpson’s substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.1 million. Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath secured her primary but trails significantly in resources and faces multiple minor-party candidates on the November 3 ballot. Trader consensus at 94.6% for Simpson aligns with historical patterns in safe districts, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, national events, or candidate-specific issues could theoretically narrow margins before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,399 交易量
$34,399 交易量
2026-11-02
迈克·辛普森（共和党）
95%
Ellie Gilbreath（民主党）
6%
$34,399 交易量
$34,399 交易量
2026-11-02
迈克·辛普森（共和党）
$14,241 交易量
95%
Ellie Gilbreath（民主党）
$20,158 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson holds a commanding lead in the ID-02 House race due to his 14-term tenure, strong performance in the May 2026 Republican primary, and the district’s consistent Republican lean across eastern and rural Idaho. Election forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and Simpson’s substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.1 million. Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath secured her primary but trails significantly in resources and faces multiple minor-party candidates on the November 3 ballot. Trader consensus at 94.6% for Simpson aligns with historical patterns in safe districts, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, national events, or candidate-specific issues could theoretically narrow margins before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$34,399结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson holds a commanding lead in the ID-02 House race due to his 14-term tenure, strong performance in the May 2026 Republican primary, and the district’s consistent Republican lean across eastern and rural Idaho. Election forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and Simpson’s substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.1 million. Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath secured her primary but trails significantly in resources and faces multiple minor-party candidates on the November 3 ballot. Trader consensus at 94.6% for Simpson aligns with historical patterns in safe districts, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, national events, or candidate-specific issues could theoretically narrow margins before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,399结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETIncumbent Republican Mike Simpson holds a commanding lead in the ID-02 House race due to his 14-term tenure, strong performance in the May 2026 Republican primary, and the district’s consistent Republican lean across eastern and rural Idaho. Election forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and Simpson’s substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $1.1 million. Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath secured her primary but trails significantly in resources and faces multiple minor-party candidates on the November 3 ballot. Trader consensus at 94.6% for Simpson aligns with historical patterns in safe districts, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts, national events, or candidate-specific issues could theoretically narrow margins before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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