Elevated inflation pressures from energy price shocks tied to Middle East tensions have driven the ECB's hawkish stance, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following a June 2026 hike and markets pricing near-certainty of a September increase to 2.5%. Staff projections show 2026 headline inflation averaging 3.0% and core at 2.5%, prompting expectations of rates holding or rising further through year-end rather than easing. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 cuts, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on persistent upside risks. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier policy reversal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$32,634 交易量
$32,634 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$32,634 交易量
$32,634 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures from energy price shocks tied to Middle East tensions have driven the ECB's hawkish stance, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following a June 2026 hike and markets pricing near-certainty of a September increase to 2.5%. Staff projections show 2026 headline inflation averaging 3.0% and core at 2.5%, prompting expectations of rates holding or rising further through year-end rather than easing. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 cuts, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on persistent upside risks. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier policy reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$32,634结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation pressures from energy price shocks tied to Middle East tensions have driven the ECB's hawkish stance, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following a June 2026 hike and markets pricing near-certainty of a September increase to 2.5%. Staff projections show 2026 headline inflation averaging 3.0% and core at 2.5%, prompting expectations of rates holding or rising further through year-end rather than easing. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 cuts, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on persistent upside risks. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier policy reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$32,634结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETElevated inflation pressures from energy price shocks tied to Middle East tensions have driven the ECB's hawkish stance, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% following a June 2026 hike and markets pricing near-certainty of a September increase to 2.5%. Staff projections show 2026 headline inflation averaging 3.0% and core at 2.5%, prompting expectations of rates holding or rising further through year-end rather than easing. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 cuts, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on persistent upside risks. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier policy reversal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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