Incumbent Jahana Hayes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district due to the area’s Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million compared with challenger Chris Shea’s roughly $300,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Shea secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but faces structural headwinds in a D+6 partisan environment. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Hayes incorporates these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could still narrow the implied probability before ballots close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
贾哈娜·海斯（民主党）
95%
克里斯·谢伊（共和党）
5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
贾哈娜·海斯（民主党）
$5,328 交易量
95%
克里斯·谢伊（共和党）
$3,497 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jahana Hayes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district due to the area’s Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million compared with challenger Chris Shea’s roughly $300,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Shea secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but faces structural headwinds in a D+6 partisan environment. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Hayes incorporates these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could still narrow the implied probability before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
交易量
$8,824结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jahana Hayes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district due to the area’s Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million compared with challenger Chris Shea’s roughly $300,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Shea secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but faces structural headwinds in a D+6 partisan environment. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Hayes incorporates these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could still narrow the implied probability before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,824结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ETIncumbent Jahana Hayes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district due to the area’s Democratic lean, her established record since 2019, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million compared with challenger Chris Shea’s roughly $300,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Shea secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but faces structural headwinds in a D+6 partisan environment. Trader consensus at 94.7% for Hayes incorporates these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could still narrow the implied probability before ballots close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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