Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) remain locked in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September showing them at 45% and 44% respectively in first-round scenarios and similarly close in runoff simulations. The incumbent benefits from statewide PT organizational strength and name recognition built during his current term, while the former Salvador mayor draws concentrated support in the capital and among voters aligned with the national opposition bloc. High rejection ratings for both candidates have prevented either from pulling ahead decisively, and minor contenders register negligible shares. The October 4 first-round vote, possible October 25 runoff, and final weeks of mobilization in interior municipalities and swing areas could still shift the balance if turnout patterns or late developments favor one side.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于杰罗尼莫·罗德里格斯 53%
ACM Neto 48%
若昂·罗马 <1%
克莱伯·罗萨 <1%
$139,180 交易量
$139,180 交易量
2026-10-04
杰罗尼莫·罗德里格斯
53%
ACM Neto
48%
若昂·罗马
<1%
克莱伯·罗萨
<1%
布鲁诺·苏亚雷斯·雷斯
<1%
若泽·卡洛斯·阿勒路亚
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔
<1%
杰罗尼莫·罗德里格斯 53%
ACM Neto 48%
若昂·罗马 <1%
克莱伯·罗萨 <1%
$139,180 交易量
$139,180 交易量
2026-10-04
杰罗尼莫·罗德里格斯
$44,906 交易量
53%
ACM Neto
$52,150 交易量
48%
若昂·罗马
$5,186 交易量
<1%
克莱伯·罗萨
$13,880 交易量
<1%
布鲁诺·苏亚雷斯·雷斯
$5,325 交易量
<1%
若泽·卡洛斯·阿勒路亚
$11,986 交易量
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔
$5,747 交易量
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) remain locked in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September showing them at 45% and 44% respectively in first-round scenarios and similarly close in runoff simulations. The incumbent benefits from statewide PT organizational strength and name recognition built during his current term, while the former Salvador mayor draws concentrated support in the capital and among voters aligned with the national opposition bloc. High rejection ratings for both candidates have prevented either from pulling ahead decisively, and minor contenders register negligible shares. The October 4 first-round vote, possible October 25 runoff, and final weeks of mobilization in interior municipalities and swing areas could still shift the balance if turnout patterns or late developments favor one side.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
交易量
$139,180结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETThe Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) remain locked in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September showing them at 45% and 44% respectively in first-round scenarios and similarly close in runoff simulations. The incumbent benefits from statewide PT organizational strength and name recognition built during his current term, while the former Salvador mayor draws concentrated support in the capital and among voters aligned with the national opposition bloc. High rejection ratings for both candidates have prevented either from pulling ahead decisively, and minor contenders register negligible shares. The October 4 first-round vote, possible October 25 runoff, and final weeks of mobilization in interior municipalities and swing areas could still shift the balance if turnout patterns or late developments favor one side.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$139,180结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETJerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) remain locked in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September showing them at 45% and 44% respectively in first-round scenarios and similarly close in runoff simulations. The incumbent benefits from statewide PT organizational strength and name recognition built during his current term, while the former Salvador mayor draws concentrated support in the capital and among voters aligned with the national opposition bloc. High rejection ratings for both candidates have prevented either from pulling ahead decisively, and minor contenders register negligible shares. The October 4 first-round vote, possible October 25 runoff, and final weeks of mobilization in interior municipalities and swing areas could still shift the balance if turnout patterns or late developments favor one side.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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