Eli Crane maintains a lead in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District as the Republican incumbent seeking a third term against Democrat Jonathan Nez, a former Navajo Nation president, in their 2024 rematch. Recent August polling averages show Crane ahead by roughly 6.5 points, with surveys ranging from a 2-point edge in a Democratic internal to an 11-point Republican poll, consistent with the district’s rural character and Republican performance in the prior cycle. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. Campaign finance data through mid-2026 indicates Crane holds a substantial cash-on-hand advantage. The November 3 general election follows uncontested July primaries, with recent exchanges centering on water policy and federal legislation rather than shifting the overall positioning.