Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024 and the absence of a Democratic senator since 1939. Marshall secured his party's nomination easily in the August 4 primary against limited opposition. Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, won a crowded primary but faces structural barriers. Recent polling shows a competitive race with margins under 5 points in some surveys, while the September 12 debate at the Kansas State Fair featured a vocal crowd that interrupted Marshall on issues including agriculture, immigration, and his alignment with Trump policies. Prediction market pricing reflects traders' assessment that these factors are unlikely to overcome Kansas's partisan fundamentals before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$50,659 交易量
$50,659 交易量
2026-11-02
罗杰·马歇尔（共和党）
80%
亚当·汉密尔顿（民主党）
22%
$50,659 交易量
$50,659 交易量
2026-11-02
罗杰·马歇尔（共和党）
$32,667 交易量
80%
亚当·汉密尔顿（民主党）
$17,992 交易量
22%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024 and the absence of a Democratic senator since 1939. Marshall secured his party's nomination easily in the August 4 primary against limited opposition. Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, won a crowded primary but faces structural barriers. Recent polling shows a competitive race with margins under 5 points in some surveys, while the September 12 debate at the Kansas State Fair featured a vocal crowd that interrupted Marshall on issues including agriculture, immigration, and his alignment with Trump policies. Prediction market pricing reflects traders' assessment that these factors are unlikely to overcome Kansas's partisan fundamentals before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$50,659结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024 and the absence of a Democratic senator since 1939. Marshall secured his party's nomination easily in the August 4 primary against limited opposition. Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, won a crowded primary but faces structural barriers. Recent polling shows a competitive race with margins under 5 points in some surveys, while the September 12 debate at the Kansas State Fair featured a vocal crowd that interrupted Marshall on issues including agriculture, immigration, and his alignment with Trump policies. Prediction market pricing reflects traders' assessment that these factors are unlikely to overcome Kansas's partisan fundamentals before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$50,659结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETIncumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024 and the absence of a Democratic senator since 1939. Marshall secured his party's nomination easily in the August 4 primary against limited opposition. Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, won a crowded primary but faces structural barriers. Recent polling shows a competitive race with margins under 5 points in some surveys, while the September 12 debate at the Kansas State Fair featured a vocal crowd that interrupted Marshall on issues including agriculture, immigration, and his alignment with Trump policies. Prediction market pricing reflects traders' assessment that these factors are unlikely to overcome Kansas's partisan fundamentals before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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