Incumbent Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district due to its R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and his established record since 2015. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Westerman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary further reinforce trader consensus around a wide victory margin. James Russell, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in a March primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen late developments such as health issues, major scandals, or significant national political shifts within the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,907 交易量
$23,907 交易量
2026-11-02
布鲁斯·韦斯特曼（共和党）
94%
詹姆斯·拉塞尔（民主党）
5%
$23,907 交易量
$23,907 交易量
2026-11-02
布鲁斯·韦斯特曼（共和党）
$12,557 交易量
94%
詹姆斯·拉塞尔（民主党）
$11,350 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district due to its R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and his established record since 2015. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Westerman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary further reinforce trader consensus around a wide victory margin. James Russell, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in a March primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen late developments such as health issues, major scandals, or significant national political shifts within the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$23,907结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district due to its R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and his established record since 2015. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Westerman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary further reinforce trader consensus around a wide victory margin. James Russell, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in a March primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen late developments such as health issues, major scandals, or significant national political shifts within the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,907结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district due to its R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and his established record since 2015. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Westerman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary further reinforce trader consensus around a wide victory margin. James Russell, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in a March primary, faces structural headwinds in the rural, conservative district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include unforeseen late developments such as health issues, major scandals, or significant national political shifts within the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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