Incumbent Republican French Hill holds an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s R+8 partisan lean, his status as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared with Democrat Chris Jones’s roughly $1.2 million. Both candidates secured their nominations in the March 2026 primaries by wide margins. A single August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44% prompted the DCCC to label the seat competitive and drew an endorsement from Kamala Harris focused on cost-of-living concerns, yet forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. Traders appear to weigh these short-term signals against the district’s underlying Republican tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,244 交易量
$12,244 交易量
2026-11-02
French Hill（共和党）
87%
克里斯·琼斯（民主党）
14%
$12,244 交易量
$12,244 交易量
2026-11-02
French Hill（共和党）
$4,224 交易量
87%
克里斯·琼斯（民主党）
$8,020 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s R+8 partisan lean, his status as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared with Democrat Chris Jones’s roughly $1.2 million. Both candidates secured their nominations in the March 2026 primaries by wide margins. A single August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44% prompted the DCCC to label the seat competitive and drew an endorsement from Kamala Harris focused on cost-of-living concerns, yet forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. Traders appear to weigh these short-term signals against the district’s underlying Republican tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$12,244结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s R+8 partisan lean, his status as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared with Democrat Chris Jones’s roughly $1.2 million. Both candidates secured their nominations in the March 2026 primaries by wide margins. A single August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44% prompted the DCCC to label the seat competitive and drew an endorsement from Kamala Harris focused on cost-of-living concerns, yet forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. Traders appear to weigh these short-term signals against the district’s underlying Republican tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,244结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Republican French Hill holds an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s R+8 partisan lean, his status as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared with Democrat Chris Jones’s roughly $1.2 million. Both candidates secured their nominations in the March 2026 primaries by wide margins. A single August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44% prompted the DCCC to label the seat competitive and drew an endorsement from Kamala Harris focused on cost-of-living concerns, yet forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. Traders appear to weigh these short-term signals against the district’s underlying Republican tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题