**The competitive U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, combined with an open gubernatorial race, has generated sustained voter interest ahead of the November 3 general election.** Recent polling shows a toss-up, with Peltola holding narrow leads in several surveys and Sullivan maintaining an edge in others, consistent with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and its history of close statewide outcomes. The August 18 top-four primary drew unusually high participation—nearly 167,000 ballots, or about 27.7% of registered voters—reflecting elevated stakes that analysts link to the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate matchup’s national implications. These factors support trader expectations for general-election turnout in the 290,000–305,000 range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent bands reflecting typical variability in a state where registered voters number around 600,000 and participation is influenced by mail and early voting patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于290K-305K 40%
305K-320K 30%
275K-290K 27%
260K-275K 7.0%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于230K
2%
230K-245K
1%
245K-260K
1%
260K-275K
7%
275K-290K
27%
290K-305K
40%
305K-320K
30%
32万+
1%
290K-305K 40%
305K-320K 30%
275K-290K 27%
260K-275K 7.0%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于230K
$340 交易量
2%
230K-245K
$334 交易量
1%
245K-260K
$353 交易量
1%
260K-275K
$456 交易量
7%
275K-290K
$870 交易量
27%
290K-305K
$1,240 交易量
40%
305K-320K
$1,059 交易量
30%
32万+
$327 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The competitive U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, combined with an open gubernatorial race, has generated sustained voter interest ahead of the November 3 general election.** Recent polling shows a toss-up, with Peltola holding narrow leads in several surveys and Sullivan maintaining an edge in others, consistent with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and its history of close statewide outcomes. The August 18 top-four primary drew unusually high participation—nearly 167,000 ballots, or about 27.7% of registered voters—reflecting elevated stakes that analysts link to the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate matchup’s national implications. These factors support trader expectations for general-election turnout in the 290,000–305,000 range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent bands reflecting typical variability in a state where registered voters number around 600,000 and participation is influenced by mail and early voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
交易量
$4,979结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The competitive U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, combined with an open gubernatorial race, has generated sustained voter interest ahead of the November 3 general election.** Recent polling shows a toss-up, with Peltola holding narrow leads in several surveys and Sullivan maintaining an edge in others, consistent with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and its history of close statewide outcomes. The August 18 top-four primary drew unusually high participation—nearly 167,000 ballots, or about 27.7% of registered voters—reflecting elevated stakes that analysts link to the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate matchup’s national implications. These factors support trader expectations for general-election turnout in the 290,000–305,000 range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent bands reflecting typical variability in a state where registered voters number around 600,000 and participation is influenced by mail and early voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,979结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET**The competitive U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, combined with an open gubernatorial race, has generated sustained voter interest ahead of the November 3 general election.** Recent polling shows a toss-up, with Peltola holding narrow leads in several surveys and Sullivan maintaining an edge in others, consistent with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and its history of close statewide outcomes. The August 18 top-four primary drew unusually high participation—nearly 167,000 ballots, or about 27.7% of registered voters—reflecting elevated stakes that analysts link to the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate matchup’s national implications. These factors support trader expectations for general-election turnout in the 290,000–305,000 range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent bands reflecting typical variability in a state where registered voters number around 600,000 and participation is influenced by mail and early voting patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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