The competitive U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by most forecasters, combined with an open governor's race, is sustaining elevated interest and keeping first-round turnout expectations tightly clustered in the 275,000–320,000 range. Recent polling averages show the candidates within a few points, with Peltola holding a narrow edge in some surveys after outperforming Sullivan in the August primary. Absent a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, participation is projected to exceed the 2022 midterm but fall short of 2024 presidential levels, when over 340,000 ballots were cast. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current market pricing underscores uncertainty over mobilization of independent voters and overall engagement in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于275K-290K 37%
290K-305K 31%
305K-320K 29%
260K-275K 6.9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于230K
1%
230K-245K
<1%
245K-260K
<1%
260K-275K
11%
275K-290K
37%
290K-305K
36%
305K-320K
29%
32万+
<1%
275K-290K 37%
290K-305K 31%
305K-320K 29%
260K-275K 6.9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于230K
$432 交易量
1%
230K-245K
$426 交易量
<1%
245K-260K
$450 交易量
<1%
260K-275K
$563 交易量
11%
275K-290K
$1,077 交易量
37%
290K-305K
$1,348 交易量
36%
305K-320K
$1,281 交易量
29%
32万+
$458 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by most forecasters, combined with an open governor's race, is sustaining elevated interest and keeping first-round turnout expectations tightly clustered in the 275,000–320,000 range. Recent polling averages show the candidates within a few points, with Peltola holding a narrow edge in some surveys after outperforming Sullivan in the August primary. Absent a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, participation is projected to exceed the 2022 midterm but fall short of 2024 presidential levels, when over 340,000 ballots were cast. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current market pricing underscores uncertainty over mobilization of independent voters and overall engagement in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
交易量
$6,036结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by most forecasters, combined with an open governor's race, is sustaining elevated interest and keeping first-round turnout expectations tightly clustered in the 275,000–320,000 range. Recent polling averages show the candidates within a few points, with Peltola holding a narrow edge in some surveys after outperforming Sullivan in the August primary. Absent a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, participation is projected to exceed the 2022 midterm but fall short of 2024 presidential levels, when over 340,000 ballots were cast. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current market pricing underscores uncertainty over mobilization of independent voters and overall engagement in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,036结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETThe competitive U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by most forecasters, combined with an open governor's race, is sustaining elevated interest and keeping first-round turnout expectations tightly clustered in the 275,000–320,000 range. Recent polling averages show the candidates within a few points, with Peltola holding a narrow edge in some surveys after outperforming Sullivan in the August primary. Absent a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, participation is projected to exceed the 2022 midterm but fall short of 2024 presidential levels, when over 340,000 ballots were cast. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current market pricing underscores uncertainty over mobilization of independent voters and overall engagement in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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