South Africa’s 2026 inflation path remains shaped by the lingering effects of the Middle East conflict-driven oil price surge, which lifted headline CPI to 5.0% in June before easing to 4.3% in July amid softer transport costs. The South African Reserve Bank’s latest projections place average 2026 inflation at 4.4%, with core measures and expectations surveys clustered near 3.8–4.4%, reflecting contained goods prices and a resilient rand offset by sticky fuel and food components. Trader positioning across the Polymarket distribution—led by the >5.0% bucket at 27.8%—captures uncertainty over whether second-round wage effects or further commodity volatility will push the annual average above the SARB’s 3% target band or allow moderation toward 3.7% in 2027 as monetary policy at 7% exerts restraint. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and MPC decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於>5.0% 25.9%
4.4-4.7% 16.5%
低於2.6% 10.8%
4.7-5.0% 9.8%
$59,228 交易量
$59,228 交易量
2027-01-19
低於2.6%
11%
2.6-2.9%
1%
2.9-3.2%
5%
3.2-3.5%
2%
3.5-3.8%
4%
3.8-4.1%
3%
4.1-4.4%
4%
4.4-4.7%
17%
4.7-5.0%
10%
>5.0%
26%
>5.0% 25.9%
4.4-4.7% 16.5%
低於2.6% 10.8%
4.7-5.0% 9.8%
$59,228 交易量
$59,228 交易量
2027-01-19
低於2.6%
$1,708 交易量
11%
2.6-2.9%
$2,124 交易量
1%
2.9-3.2%
$1,823 交易量
5%
3.2-3.5%
$1,854 交易量
2%
3.5-3.8%
$2,077 交易量
4%
3.8-4.1%
$3,716 交易量
3%
4.1-4.4%
$3,950 交易量
4%
4.4-4.7%
$20,258 交易量
17%
4.7-5.0%
$8,202 交易量
10%
>5.0%
$13,516 交易量
26%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South Africa’s 2026 inflation path remains shaped by the lingering effects of the Middle East conflict-driven oil price surge, which lifted headline CPI to 5.0% in June before easing to 4.3% in July amid softer transport costs. The South African Reserve Bank’s latest projections place average 2026 inflation at 4.4%, with core measures and expectations surveys clustered near 3.8–4.4%, reflecting contained goods prices and a resilient rand offset by sticky fuel and food components. Trader positioning across the Polymarket distribution—led by the >5.0% bucket at 27.8%—captures uncertainty over whether second-round wage effects or further commodity volatility will push the annual average above the SARB’s 3% target band or allow moderation toward 3.7% in 2027 as monetary policy at 7% exerts restraint. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and MPC decision.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
市場開放時間： Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
交易量
$59,228結束日期
2027-01-20市場開放時間
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETThis is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South Africa’s 2026 inflation path remains shaped by the lingering effects of the Middle East conflict-driven oil price surge, which lifted headline CPI to 5.0% in June before easing to 4.3% in July amid softer transport costs. The South African Reserve Bank’s latest projections place average 2026 inflation at 4.4%, with core measures and expectations surveys clustered near 3.8–4.4%, reflecting contained goods prices and a resilient rand offset by sticky fuel and food components. Trader positioning across the Polymarket distribution—led by the >5.0% bucket at 27.8%—captures uncertainty over whether second-round wage effects or further commodity volatility will push the annual average above the SARB’s 3% target band or allow moderation toward 3.7% in 2027 as monetary policy at 7% exerts restraint. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and MPC decision.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
交易量
$59,228結束日期
2027-01-20市場開放時間
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETSouth Africa’s 2026 inflation path remains shaped by the lingering effects of the Middle East conflict-driven oil price surge, which lifted headline CPI to 5.0% in June before easing to 4.3% in July amid softer transport costs. The South African Reserve Bank’s latest projections place average 2026 inflation at 4.4%, with core measures and expectations surveys clustered near 3.8–4.4%, reflecting contained goods prices and a resilient rand offset by sticky fuel and food components. Trader positioning across the Polymarket distribution—led by the >5.0% bucket at 27.8%—captures uncertainty over whether second-round wage effects or further commodity volatility will push the annual average above the SARB’s 3% target band or allow moderation toward 3.7% in 2027 as monetary policy at 7% exerts restraint. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and MPC decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions