Traders assign nearly identical probabilities to a September 28 or 29 release of Grok 4.7 because recent leaks—Google Cloud quota entries and withdrawn benchmark runs—signal that xAI has completed pre-training on the 2.1-trillion-parameter model and is finalizing integrations, yet Elon Musk’s September 11 statement that it “needs a few more days to cook” for reinforcement-learning tuning and multimodal fixes keeps the exact window fluid. The 27.7 percent chance of no release by month-end reflects xAI’s repeated timeline slips, the absence of an official model ID or changelog as of September 20, and the competitive pressure to match or exceed Opus 5.0-class performance before launch. These dynamics create tight clustering around the final days of September while leaving room for last-minute adjustments or further delay.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9 月 29 日 37.2%
截至9月30日無發佈 27.7%
9 月 21 日 20.5%
9 月 23 日 9.9%
$19,513 交易量
$19,513 交易量
2026-09-11
9 月 20 日
5%
9 月 21 日
20%
9 月 22 日
19%
9 月 23 日
13%
9 月 24 日
19%
9 月 25 日
25%
9 月 26 日
1%
9 月 27 日
1%
9 月 28 日
37%
9 月 29 日
37%
9 月 30 日
1%
截至9月30日無發佈
28%
9 月 29 日 37.2%
截至9月30日無發佈 27.7%
9 月 21 日 20.5%
9 月 23 日 9.9%
$19,513 交易量
$19,513 交易量
2026-09-11
9 月 20 日
$951 交易量
5%
9 月 21 日
$665 交易量
20%
9 月 22 日
$544 交易量
19%
9 月 23 日
$691 交易量
13%
9 月 24 日
$592 交易量
19%
9 月 25 日
$1,026 交易量
25%
9 月 26 日
$640 交易量
1%
9 月 27 日
$756 交易量
1%
9 月 28 日
$635 交易量
37%
9 月 29 日
$665 交易量
37%
9 月 30 日
$906 交易量
1%
截至9月30日無發佈
$706 交易量
28%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign nearly identical probabilities to a September 28 or 29 release of Grok 4.7 because recent leaks—Google Cloud quota entries and withdrawn benchmark runs—signal that xAI has completed pre-training on the 2.1-trillion-parameter model and is finalizing integrations, yet Elon Musk’s September 11 statement that it “needs a few more days to cook” for reinforcement-learning tuning and multimodal fixes keeps the exact window fluid. The 27.7 percent chance of no release by month-end reflects xAI’s repeated timeline slips, the absence of an official model ID or changelog as of September 20, and the competitive pressure to match or exceed Opus 5.0-class performance before launch. These dynamics create tight clustering around the final days of September while leaving room for last-minute adjustments or further delay.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
交易量
$19,513結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign nearly identical probabilities to a September 28 or 29 release of Grok 4.7 because recent leaks—Google Cloud quota entries and withdrawn benchmark runs—signal that xAI has completed pre-training on the 2.1-trillion-parameter model and is finalizing integrations, yet Elon Musk’s September 11 statement that it “needs a few more days to cook” for reinforcement-learning tuning and multimodal fixes keeps the exact window fluid. The 27.7 percent chance of no release by month-end reflects xAI’s repeated timeline slips, the absence of an official model ID or changelog as of September 20, and the competitive pressure to match or exceed Opus 5.0-class performance before launch. These dynamics create tight clustering around the final days of September while leaving room for last-minute adjustments or further delay.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$19,513結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Traders assign nearly identical probabilities to a September 28 or 29 release of Grok 4.7 because recent leaks—Google Cloud quota entries and withdrawn benchmark runs—signal that xAI has completed pre-training on the 2.1-trillion-parameter model and is finalizing integrations, yet Elon Musk’s September 11 statement that it “needs a few more days to cook” for reinforcement-learning tuning and multimodal fixes keeps the exact window fluid. The 27.7 percent chance of no release by month-end reflects xAI’s repeated timeline slips, the absence of an official model ID or changelog as of September 20, and the competitive pressure to match or exceed Opus 5.0-class performance before launch. These dynamics create tight clustering around the final days of September while leaving room for last-minute adjustments or further delay.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions