The redrawn California 6th district, incorporating Sacramento-area suburbs after Proposition 50, carries a Democratic lean that has shaped trader positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced from the June top-two primary as the No Party Preference candidate and continues to caucus with Republicans, while Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator with labor and education endorsements, also moved forward. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, and independent forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Likely Democratic. The implied probability for a Democratic winner reflects the district's composition and Pan's organizational advantages, though a consolidated Kiley performance among independents and Republicans or shifts in turnout could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$50,192 交易量
$50,192 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
3%
$50,192 交易量
$50,192 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$25,661 交易量
95%
共和黨
$24,531 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn California 6th district, incorporating Sacramento-area suburbs after Proposition 50, carries a Democratic lean that has shaped trader positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced from the June top-two primary as the No Party Preference candidate and continues to caucus with Republicans, while Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator with labor and education endorsements, also moved forward. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, and independent forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Likely Democratic. The implied probability for a Democratic winner reflects the district's composition and Pan's organizational advantages, though a consolidated Kiley performance among independents and Republicans or shifts in turnout could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$50,192結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn California 6th district, incorporating Sacramento-area suburbs after Proposition 50, carries a Democratic lean that has shaped trader positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced from the June top-two primary as the No Party Preference candidate and continues to caucus with Republicans, while Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator with labor and education endorsements, also moved forward. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, and independent forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Likely Democratic. The implied probability for a Democratic winner reflects the district's composition and Pan's organizational advantages, though a consolidated Kiley performance among independents and Republicans or shifts in turnout could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$50,192結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThe redrawn California 6th district, incorporating Sacramento-area suburbs after Proposition 50, carries a Democratic lean that has shaped trader positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced from the June top-two primary as the No Party Preference candidate and continues to caucus with Republicans, while Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator with labor and education endorsements, also moved forward. Recent polling shows Pan holding a modest edge, and independent forecasters rate the seat as Solid or Likely Democratic. The implied probability for a Democratic winner reflects the district's composition and Pan's organizational advantages, though a consolidated Kiley performance among independents and Republicans or shifts in turnout could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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