The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, features a tight contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Recent Camden local results and by-election projections place Labour on roughly 39–42% and the Greens on 28–38%, reflecting national post-Starmer pressures, strong Green performance in urban London seats, and local priorities such as housing and climate policy. A fragmented field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, the Workers Party, and others, further splits opposition votes. Traders’ clustering around the 35–45% Labour bands captures uncertainty over turnout among progressive voters and whether Labour can consolidate its traditional base before polling day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於40-45% 38%
35-40% 30%
45-50% 21%
50％以上 10%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少於30%
5%
30-35%
7%
35-40%
30%
40-45%
38%
45-50%
21%
50％以上
10%
40-45% 38%
35-40% 30%
45-50% 21%
50％以上 10%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少於30%
$504 交易量
5%
30-35%
$346 交易量
7%
35-40%
$444 交易量
30%
40-45%
$1,383 交易量
38%
45-50%
$1,519 交易量
21%
50％以上
$764 交易量
10%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, features a tight contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Recent Camden local results and by-election projections place Labour on roughly 39–42% and the Greens on 28–38%, reflecting national post-Starmer pressures, strong Green performance in urban London seats, and local priorities such as housing and climate policy. A fragmented field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, the Workers Party, and others, further splits opposition votes. Traders’ clustering around the 35–45% Labour bands captures uncertainty over turnout among progressive voters and whether Labour can consolidate its traditional base before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
交易量
$4,961結束日期
2026-10-08市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETA by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, features a tight contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Recent Camden local results and by-election projections place Labour on roughly 39–42% and the Greens on 28–38%, reflecting national post-Starmer pressures, strong Green performance in urban London seats, and local priorities such as housing and climate policy. A fragmented field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, the Workers Party, and others, further splits opposition votes. Traders’ clustering around the 35–45% Labour bands captures uncertainty over turnout among progressive voters and whether Labour can consolidate its traditional base before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
交易量
$4,961結束日期
2026-10-08市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETThe Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, features a tight contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Recent Camden local results and by-election projections place Labour on roughly 39–42% and the Greens on 28–38%, reflecting national post-Starmer pressures, strong Green performance in urban London seats, and local priorities such as housing and climate policy. A fragmented field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, the Workers Party, and others, further splits opposition votes. Traders’ clustering around the 35–45% Labour bands captures uncertainty over turnout among progressive voters and whether Labour can consolidate its traditional base before polling day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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