The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, where Kamala Harris carried the area by more than 70 points in 2024, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic outcome at 97.9%. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured an 84% to 16% primary victory over Jamie Joyce in June 2026 under the state's top-two system, advancing both Democrats to the November general while no Republican qualified. Simon's substantial fundraising edge and established voter base in the East Bay further reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the frontrunner, or unusually high Republican write-in support, though historical patterns and current polling fundamentals indicate limited scope for such changes before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$44,263 交易量
$44,263 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
98%
共和黨
<1%
$44,263 交易量
$44,263 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$27,011 交易量
98%
共和黨
$17,251 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, where Kamala Harris carried the area by more than 70 points in 2024, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic outcome at 97.9%. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured an 84% to 16% primary victory over Jamie Joyce in June 2026 under the state's top-two system, advancing both Democrats to the November general while no Republican qualified. Simon's substantial fundraising edge and established voter base in the East Bay further reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the frontrunner, or unusually high Republican write-in support, though historical patterns and current polling fundamentals indicate limited scope for such changes before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$44,263結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, where Kamala Harris carried the area by more than 70 points in 2024, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic outcome at 97.9%. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured an 84% to 16% primary victory over Jamie Joyce in June 2026 under the state's top-two system, advancing both Democrats to the November general while no Republican qualified. Simon's substantial fundraising edge and established voter base in the East Bay further reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the frontrunner, or unusually high Republican write-in support, though historical patterns and current polling fundamentals indicate limited scope for such changes before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$44,263結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThe heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, where Kamala Harris carried the area by more than 70 points in 2024, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic outcome at 97.9%. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured an 84% to 16% primary victory over Jamie Joyce in June 2026 under the state's top-two system, advancing both Democrats to the November general while no Republican qualified. Simon's substantial fundraising edge and established voter base in the East Bay further reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the frontrunner, or unusually high Republican write-in support, though historical patterns and current polling fundamentals indicate limited scope for such changes before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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