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icon for 在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？
世界·德國

在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？

icon for 在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？
世界·德國

在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？

2028年前無下一任總理 46%

亨德里克·吳斯特 25%

馬庫斯·索德 20%

鮑里斯·皮斯托留斯 8%

Polymarket

$28,622 交易量

2028年前無下一任總理 46%

亨德里克·吳斯特 25%

馬庫斯·索德 20%

鮑里斯·皮斯托留斯 8%

Polymarket

$28,622 交易量

icon for 2028年前無下一任總理

2028年前無下一任總理

$22,347 交易量

46%

icon for 亨德里克·吳斯特

亨德里克·吳斯特

$1,671 交易量

25%

icon for 馬庫斯·索德

馬庫斯·索德

$1,348 交易量

20%

icon for 鮑里斯·皮斯托留斯

鮑里斯·皮斯托留斯

$683 交易量

8%

icon for 費利克斯·巴納薩克

費利克斯·巴納薩克

$448 交易量

4%

icon for 艾莉絲·魏德爾

艾莉絲·魏德爾

$429 交易量

3%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$238 交易量

3%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$228 交易量

1%

icon for 卡塔麗娜·德勒格

卡塔麗娜·德勒格

$263 交易量

1%

icon for 卡斯滕·林內曼

卡斯滕·林內曼

$236 交易量

1%

icon for 延斯·施潘

延斯·施潘

$238 交易量

<1%

icon for 拉爾斯·克林貝爾

拉爾斯·克林貝爾

$264 交易量

<1%

icon for 薩哈拉·瓦根克內希特

薩哈拉·瓦根克內希特

$228 交易量

<1%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election losses for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, including a historic low of around 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and defeat in Berlin to Die Linke on September 20, 2026, have intensified speculation about a mid-term leadership change before the 2029 federal vote. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with “no change before 2028” near even odds and leading CDU figures such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder holding the highest implied probabilities among named candidates, followed by lower-priced options including Boris Pistorius. Persistent economic weakness, AfD gains in eastern states, and internal CDU pressure create volatility, while Merz’s public commitment to reforms and lack of an immediate successor keep probabilities closely matched. Scheduled future state votes or coalition strains could shift positioning.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,622
結束日期
2028-01-01
市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election losses for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, including a historic low of around 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and defeat in Berlin to Die Linke on September 20, 2026, have intensified speculation about a mid-term leadership change before the 2029 federal vote. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with “no change before 2028” near even odds and leading CDU figures such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder holding the highest implied probabilities among named candidates, followed by lower-priced options including Boris Pistorius. Persistent economic weakness, AfD gains in eastern states, and internal CDU pressure create volatility, while Merz’s public commitment to reforms and lack of an immediate successor keep probabilities closely matched. Scheduled future state votes or coalition strains could shift positioning.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,622
結束日期
2028-01-01
市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

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警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2028年前無下一任總理" at 46%, followed by "亨德里克·吳斯特" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？" has generated $28.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？" is "2028年前無下一任總理" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "亨德里克·吳斯特" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在2028年之前成為德國的下一任總理？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.