Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling strength and a consolidated field after earlier withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra. The latest Quaest survey from early September showed him at 42% against Fernando Haddad’s 27%, a 15-point margin that widened slightly from August, with smaller candidates at 1% or less and 14% undecided. This positioning, backed by a broad coalition including PL, MDB, PSD, and others, supports trader expectations of a first-round victory or decisive runoff edge. Remaining risks include late voter shifts among undecideds or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the October 25 potential second round.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTarcísio de Freitas 98.2%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$308,591 KL.
$308,591 KL.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
98%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 98.2%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$308,591 KL.
$308,591 KL.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$146,132 KL.
98%
Fernando Haddad
$51,461 KL.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 KL.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$77,262 KL.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 KL.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling strength and a consolidated field after earlier withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra. The latest Quaest survey from early September showed him at 42% against Fernando Haddad’s 27%, a 15-point margin that widened slightly from August, with smaller candidates at 1% or less and 14% undecided. This positioning, backed by a broad coalition including PL, MDB, PSD, and others, supports trader expectations of a first-round victory or decisive runoff edge. Remaining risks include late voter shifts among undecideds or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the October 25 potential second round.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$308,591Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling strength and a consolidated field after earlier withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra. The latest Quaest survey from early September showed him at 42% against Fernando Haddad’s 27%, a 15-point margin that widened slightly from August, with smaller candidates at 1% or less and 14% undecided. This positioning, backed by a broad coalition including PL, MDB, PSD, and others, supports trader expectations of a first-round victory or decisive runoff edge. Remaining risks include late voter shifts among undecideds or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the October 25 potential second round.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Khối lượng
$308,591Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling strength and a consolidated field after earlier withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra. The latest Quaest survey from early September showed him at 42% against Fernando Haddad’s 27%, a 15-point margin that widened slightly from August, with smaller candidates at 1% or less and 14% undecided. This positioning, backed by a broad coalition including PL, MDB, PSD, and others, supports trader expectations of a first-round victory or decisive runoff edge. Remaining risks include late voter shifts among undecideds or turnout surprises in the final weeks before the October 25 potential second round.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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